Florida (4.00 / 1)

Last I checked, Marco Rubio is tied with Charlie Crist among Republicans who know them both. If he can excite conservatives, which he certainly can, and get them out to vote, he may soon have a good chance of winning the GOP primary despite being so behind.

I would compare the Rubio/Crist situation to the Toomey/Specter situation in that the conservative base could really turn the tide on this one. And if Rubio wins that primary, I think the election automatically becomes a true toss-up if not a slight lean-dem. Florida can be a moderate state in national elections, and Rubio is a die-hard conservative. The biggest advantage he has, that I can think of right now, is his Cuban base here in Miami which will no doubt vote for him in very high numbers. However, with the changing demographics in Florida, that will no longer affect the race as it might have a decade ago.

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by: digitall565 @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:17:43 PM CDT

No (0.00 / 0)

That is not true from the last poll I have seen.

Rubio's numbers (low 20's) are identical to Crist's approval/disapproval numbers for Governor.  The problem for Rubio is that Crist's approval ratings among repugs is about 68%.

Crist announced he raised 3 million in 6 weeks.  

I don't think this race is going anywhere.

I DO think, though, if the budget crisis in Florida in 2010 gets bad, a Democrat will have a shot if they can find the money.  

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by: fladem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 15:31:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

if we can't win NC (4.00 / 2)

I'll be very disappointed.

And why is there still no progressive primary challenger to Bennet in CO? That is ridiculous.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:34:55 PM CDT

About Bennet (0.00 / 0)

I haven't heard anything about any challengers to the guy. That's a shame because on everything from cramdown, to EFCA, to the public option, he's been siding with the Rethugs. I don't know anything about the local political scene in Colorado so if there are any Coloradans out there, what are you hearing about possible challengers? I know Colorado's not Massachusetts but with Democrats having had so much luck there in recent years, it'd be a shame to give a DINO like Bennet a free pass--especially since he hasn't ever campaigned before and so is probably pretty vulnerable to a seasoned progressive challenger.

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by: Starving Student NYC @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 18:08:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not going to lose DE... (0.00 / 0)

Really hard to imagine that we lose DE... And even though Dodd has really been dragged through the mud I'd have to imagine that his numbers will improve dramatically as we get closer to the election.

Of course, I'm just issuing mindless speculation rather than actual poll numbers...  So I don't really have anything to back this up. =)

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:37:48 PM CDT

actual poll numbers (4.00 / 2)

suggest that Republican Mike Castle would start out well ahead of Beau Biden in DE. Castle has easily won re-election statewide despite strong Democratic presidential voting in DE.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:39:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, I know... (0.00 / 0)

I just figure that once Beau Biden actually starts, you know, a campaign, that he'll be doing a lot better... Of course, has Biden even said that he's running yet?  Has Castle?

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 15:32:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Beau Biden vs Mike Castle matchup will be similar to the Tom Carper vs Bill Roth matchup in 2000. (0.00 / 0)

In 2000- the aging Republican Incumbent US Senator Bill Roth was challenged and unseated by the term limited popular Two Term Democratic Governor Tom Carper. Carper beat Roth by a double digit margin. Gore carried DE in 2000 by a 55-42 percent margin and Roth was in ill health.

In 2010- Mike Castle is technically the incumbent in this race. He is a former two term Governor during the 1980's. He served almost 2 decades in the US House- representative the DE-AL Congressional District since 1992. He is in his 70's and in poor health.
Beau Biden is the son of the long time US Senator and now VP Joe Biden. He was elected DE Attorney General in 2006. He is currently serving in Iraq as a member of JAG.
The reason why Castle won re-election in 2006 and 2008 is because he has not been seriously challenged.
Castle is going to face a primary challenge against the Conservative wingnut Christine O'Donnell. Beau Biden can argue that Democrats will have a super majority in the US Senate. Assuming Republican win CT and DE. Democrats will pick up NH,MO,OH,and possibly KY. Mike Castle is going to be in the minority status. He will have no clout in the US Senate surrounded by the conservative wingnuts. Beau Biden has close ties with the Obama-Biden White House and the entire DE Congressional Delegation and the Governor of DE is Democratic.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 10:06:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

even in the hopeless states (4.00 / 4)

it is important to recruit credible Democratic candidates. I know Chuck Grassley's never going to lose an election in Iowa, but I am glad we have Bob Krause out there making the case against him. Federal races are at the top of the ballot, and if we didn't have a candidate against Grassley it would reduce the number of Iowans ready to vote straight ticket Democrat.

Iowa Democrats have given Grassley a pass for too many years, and his favorable ratings among Democrats are just ridiculous (over 60 percent in some polls). In states that allow straight-ticket voting we especially need candidates out there reminding Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents how bad these safe Republican incumbents are.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:38:42 PM CDT

if the economy stays in the tank (4.00 / 2)

A net gain of 1 Senate seat would be a very good showing. A net gain of 2 would be outstanding. Republicans will be very demoralized if they can't start clawing their way back next year.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 13:40:59 PM CDT

2010 (0.00 / 0)

Next year was generally thought of as friendly to Democrats. The GOP is defending many seats and noone thought the GOP was going to be competitive in places like DE and CT.

2012 may be a huge year for the GOP. That's when the map looks good in their favor.

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by: alex @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 15:00:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Or... (0.00 / 0)

2012 might be a good year for electing better Democrats.  The map looks really good for that as well.

Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

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by: ARDem @ Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 22:12:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In 2012- The Democratic US Senators elected in 2006 are facing re-election. (0.00 / 0)

The 2006 Class Democratic US Senators that are safe in 2012 are going to be Cardin-MD,Klobuchar-MN(Republicans will wait until 2014 to go after Franken,Casey-PA,Whitehouse-RI,and Sanders-VT.
The 2006 Class Democratic US Senators who will face a tough challenge but are favored to win re-election are Brown-OH and Menendez-NJ. They will be in the Tom Harkin pre 2008 category.
McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,and Webb-VA will face tough races.
McCaskill-MO is going to benifit from Democratic Governor Jay Nixon's coattails and a weak GOP challenger. The only Republican that can give Tester-MT a tough challenge in Dennis Rehberg-MT. Webb-VA will benifit from Obama's presidential coattails and get help from Democratic Governor Creigh Deeds and US Senator Mark Warner.
Looking at the other Democratic US Senate Seats in 2012.
Feinstien-CA- Safe Democratic regardless what Fienstien does.
Lieberman-CT- Safe Democratic regardless what Lieberman does.
Carper-DE- Safe Democratic regardless what Carper does.
Nelson-FL- Safe Democratic if Nelson runs again. Competive but Democratic favored in Nelson retires.
Akaka-HI- Safe Democratic regardless what Akaka does.
Kennedy-MA- Safe Democratic regardless what Kennedy does.
Stabenow-MI- Stabenow is in the Patty Murray-WA,Barbara Boxer-CA category- She will face a tough challenge but will win re-election by a comfortable margin.
Nelson-NE- Safe Democratic if Nelson runs again. Tossup or GOP pick up if Nelson retires.
Bingaman-NM- Safe Democratic regardless of what Bingaman does.
Gillibrand-NY- will have to face re-election to a full 6 year term in 2012. She will be in the same category as Stabenow-MI,Boxer-CA,Murray-WA and Cantwell-WA- She will face a tough challenge but will win re-election by a comforatable margin.
Conrad-ND- John Hoevan is the only GOP that can give Conrad a serious challenge but Conrad-D is safe.
Cantwell-WA- see Stabenow-MI.
Byrd-WV- open race between US Rep Shelly Moore Capito vs Governor Joe Manchin or US Rep Nick Rahall.
Kohl-WI- Safe Democratic if Kohl runs again. If Kohl retires. look for Tammy Baldwin and Ron Kind to run of the Democratic side. Paul Ryan will be the leading GOP candidate. Obama coattails will benifit the Democratic nominee.

Republican seats that are on the vulnerable list.
Arizona- (Kyl)- Who ever is not elected Governor in 2010. AG Terry Goddard or Pheonix Mayor Phil Gordon, USHSD Janet Napolitano, or US Rep Gabby Giffords.
Indiana-(Lugar-)OPEN seat. Democratic candidates include US Reps Brad Ellsworth or Barron Hill or Joe Donelly or ex US Rep Tim Roemer.
Nevada-(Ensign)- Democrats have a deep bench to knock of Ensign- S.O.S Ross Miller, US Rep Dina Titus.

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by: nkpolitics @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 10:40:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think (0.00 / 0)

You're analysis ignores a great many variables, the most glaring of which is that Gillibrand may not even make it through her primary.

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by: digitall565 @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 11:46:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gillibrand is facing a primary in 2010 Special Election not the 2012 Regular Election. (0.00 / 0)

If Gillibrand wins the 2010 Democratic primary and the 2010 Special general Election. She will have to face voters again in 2012 for a full 6 year term.
It is highly unlikely Gillibrand will get any primary challenges once she survives in the 2010 Democratic primary against Maloney. Regarding Maloney's decision to challenge Gillibrand. NY US Senate Seats rarely open up. In 2000- when Pat Moynihan retired. Maloney and Lowey were potential candidates for that seat until Hillary decided to run for the seat. NY other US Senator Chuck Schumer is not going anywhere.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 12:22:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Election Cycle. (0.00 / 0)

Republican Seats.
OPEN Seats.
FL- The likely Republican nominee is a popular Governor. The likely Democratic nominee is a CBC Congressman from Southern Florida. This is a 60-40 or 55-45 race favoring Charlie Crist.
KS- The battle is on the Republican side between US Rep Jerry Moran vs Todd Tiahrt. Whoever wins is the next US Senator from KS.
MO- The likely Democratic Nominee is Secretary of State Robin Carnahan- daughter of late Popular Former Governor Mel Carnahan. Republican nominee is Roy Blunt- former unpopular US House Republican Whip. Carnahan is favored to win the 2010 MO US Senate Race by a double digit margin.
NH- The Democrats have a top tier challenger- US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans are stuck with second or third tier candidates. Safe Democratic pickup.
OH- Whoever win the Democratic nomination will have a slight advantage or Rob Portman.
NON OPEN Seats.
AL- Shelby-(R) Safe
AK- Murkowski-(R) Safe.
AZ- McCain-(R)- Safe.
GA- Isakson-(R)-Safe.
ID- Crapo-(R)-Safe.
KY- Bunning(R)- Likely Democratic pickup.
LA- Vitter(R)- Competitive.
NC- Burr(R)-Competitive.
OK- Coburn(R)-Safe.
UT- Bennett(R)-Safe.

Democratic Side.
OPEN seats.
CO- Bennet is favored due to lack of opposition.
DE- If Castle vs Biden- It will be the nation's closely watched race. IF Castle does not run. DE remains in the Democratic collumn.
IL- Burris is going to lose in the Democratic primary or retire. Lisa Madigan is the Democratic front runner if she runs. Democratic Favored.
NY- Safe Democratic regardless of what happens to Gillibrand.

Regarding CT- The DSCC should basically let Dodd fend for himself. With or Without Dodd. Democratic will have a supermajority/more than 60 seats in the US Senate. Democrats can win the CT US Senate Seat back in 2016. Chris Murphy can win the seat back in 2016.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 11:05:34 AM CDT