Future Shock and Unplanned Obsolescence

by: David Sirota

Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 09:00


As some of you know, I'm working on a book right now about the television, movies, toys, video games and pop culture that I - and every Gen Xer - grew up on. That's all I can really say about the project right now, but I wanted to pass on my new front-page piece in the Denver Post's Sunday Perspective section about the topic, because I think it touches on a phenomenon that so many of us are struggling with these days.

The piece looks at the concept of unplanned obsolescence in Hollywood - specifically, at how many recent films we've considered timeless are being quickly fossilized thanks to ever-evolving technology that outdates their storylines. It was fun to write, but also disturbing in the sense that it focuses in on just how fast our world is now changing, and how the Toffler-ian concept of Future Shock has come to define our society.

What we look at as "outdated" is no longer stuff that's, say, 10 or 20 years old. That stuff is all but ancient history. Today, anything - gadgets, software, political ideas, etc. - can be outdated in a matter of weeks, because the pace of, well, everything has accelerated to supersonic speeds. Our fast-changing views of cultural history - as represented by the quicker aging of cinematic productions - is just one example of that acceleration.

There are obviously positives and negatives to this, of course. It's terrific that our knowledge of natural sciences is growing exponentially. It's not so terrific that, say, fact-based proposals to solve major problems can lose their enduring agency with a few salvos from the half-baked crazy people who commandeer the warp-speed 24-7 news cycle.

At a personal level, this can feel jarring - it can feel like we're all the nose-bleeding characters on Lost, bewildered by blinding flashes as we unknowingly travel through time (and I'm already wondering how quickly Lost will go from being considered a cutting-edge high-concept masterpiece to a television antique). And I think we're all struggling in our own way to make sense of this revolutionary pace of change - struggling to come to terms with a world that feels totally out of control, for better and for worse.

David Sirota :: Future Shock and Unplanned Obsolescence
This, in fact, might explain why Lost has such a devoted followership, and why shows like Mad Men are such hits. The former, thanks to both its plot and its semiotics, is a metaphor for both the perplexing chaos and of modern life, and the belief (or at least hope) that such chaos isn't pure randomness, but that there is actually some grand master force/plan at work. The latter, meanwhile, look back at the period in which a seemingly (and I do stress "seemingly") stable, predictable and plodding world originally began changing so quickly and overtly tearing apart at the seams - and in the process, the show appears to help us try to understand why things started going crazy in the first place.

As I said, in my Denver Post piece, I look at this through the prism of classic 80s and early 90s films, and how they have suddenly aged. I figured it would be a simple way to address a small piece of this larger phenomenon.

Oddly enough, out of any single piece I've written in a year, this piece has solicited the most intense response (it's perhaps a sad commentary that an article about movies has elicited a far stronger response than any article about public policy...but that's a subject for a whole other discussion). There are those readers who either loved the piece, or those who detested it - the latter's ire at their belief that I attacked the quality of old movies and/or am somehow not educated in the history of old movies (never underestimate the elitism/pretentiousness of the auteur film crowd). Thing is, though, I didn't mean to suggest that the old movies aren't relevant or, by the way, stellar in their own right. What I meant to suggest is that their settings are now aging faster than they ever did, thanks to the speed of technological innovation.

You could argue that those settings don't really matter. And while I agree that great films are great films regardless of setting, those settings do draw in (or repel) the casual and/or younger viewer - ie. the mass audience, as opposed to the auteur-loving one. So my point is actually one of despair - despair that it will become harder and harder to make "timeless" classics that draw in a mass audience over decades, because the fossilization of the settings is accelerating.

Anyhow, read the piece here.

SIDENOTE: I am guessing there will be a few people carping about how the Denver Post piece isn't "political" and then insisting that therefore it should have no place on a "political" blog like OpenLeft. Two quick things on that: 1) The underlying trend of future shock has major ramifications for our politics, as laid out in this post and 2) One of the big reasons (though certainly not the only reason) why progressive media has not achieved the kind of audience share as conservative media is because the progressive activist class makes a distinction between "political" and "non-political" content, when, in fact, most normal, non-political activists don't make such a distinction (for better or worse). I'm not, of course, saying we need to make OpenLeft or any other progressive media outlet the next TMZ - I'm just saying there's a lot of room for progressive media to realize the wrongheadedness of the supposed "political"/"non-political" silo. That silo doesn't exist in the minds of most people. Rush Limbaugh, as grotesque as he is, fundamentally understands this concept - and again, while I'm not saying we need to become Rush Limbaugh, I am saying that better understanding the cultural topography of the mass audience is something the progressive media should be working toward.


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If what you say is true (4.00 / 1)
Then wouldn't it be pointless to make movies set in the past?  Why create a historical drama or biopic?  Will people in our current car society not understand horses being used as the main form of transportation?

Perhaps you confuse "classic" with "things you like".  I cringe that you speak of "timeless" movies then use examples like Crocodile Dundee.  Why not use some Oscar-nominated films of the '80s and '90s set in those decades to illustrate your point?  What about Rain Man or Ghost or A Few Good Men or Pulp Fiction?

And, I suppose this means you approve of the trend of taking old movies and remaking or re-imagining them to fit the current times.


Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


The shock of the old (0.00 / 0)
These types of concerns aren't themselves particularly new. People have been either celebrating or worrying about -- or both-- the rapid pace of change for a long, long time. David Edgerton, in his brilliant book The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History Since 1900, writes:

We are told that change is taking place at an ever-accelerating pace, and that the new is increasingly powerful. The world, the gurus insist, is entering a new historical epoch as a result of technology. In the new economy, in new times, in our post-industrial and post-modern condition, knowledge of the present and past is supposedly ever-less relevant... There are new things under the sun, and the world is indeed changing radically, but this way of thinking is not among them. Although the emphasis on the future itself suggests originality, this kind of futurology has been with us a long time."

So, I'm not really convinced that this type of rapid-fire culture (to use Richard DeGrandpre's term, from his book Ritalin Nation) is itself anything particularly new. That doesn't mean that it issn't interesting, or troubling, but simply that its part of who we are -- and has been for a long time.


2001 (4.00 / 1)
I find it interesting to go back and watch 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Technologically, we are far behind where that movie projects us to be.  On the other hand, look at how women are treated in that movie.  Most today tend to believe our technology is advancing rapidly while our morals are declining, but that movie leads one to the opposite conclusion.

I consider all of this to be very relevant to modern politics.  Conservatism is largely a reaction to change.  Liberalism is largely an attempt to adapt to change.  How we choose to deal with a rapidly changing world is at the heart who we vote for and the policies we want implemented.


I think as you age the changes of technology represent (0.00 / 0)
a modality of chronological input and emotional appreciation.  The form of technology or even just the representation of it can create in the viewer or listener a perception of acceptance or rejection based upon personal experience.  The movies use this constantly to control the viewer and to shorten the time necessary to prep the viewer for the mood of the presentation.  An example of this was a movie I started to watch on Netflix recently that started with the main character, a supposed female race car driver from the early 1900's being shown on a jerky Movietone like format.  It then transform to a HD color presentation, but the period feel was accomplished.  

I think that sophisticated politicians, pundits, and the such play to these same psychological perceptions.   I'm not sure that this is necessarily as important as language and era specific words.  I think awareness of this allows the viewer to understand how he is being manipulated.

Thanks David.

"Oh. My. God. .... We're doomed." -- Paul Krugman
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the more things change . . . (4.00 / 2)
To some degree, I agree with you.  Certainly, films such as Gaslight, and Sorry, Wrong Number rely upon premises which are completely obsolete, and couldn't be updated without major problems.  Even more recent films such as Cabin Fever sometimes have to resort to reliance upon settings where cellphones don't have coverage.  Compare "Avatar" with "Looker," and you can't help but be amazed at how film technology itself has changed.  "Looker" was considered ridiculous when made, and bombed because of its' absurd premise (the ability to create images without creating the set and populating it); now, the technology predicted in that film is the mainstay of Hollywood technology.  

On the other hand, films like The Bourne Ultimatum are also incredibly reliant upon technology as a major premise.  It would hardly be surprising if the technology portrayed there is both real, and may be obsolete in a decade.  Interestingly, it is that very technology which gives many liberals and tea-partiers heartburn; the ability of secret government agencies to track every phone conversation via computers, and surveil everybody, bothers libertarians and liberals alike.  Even just watching the progression of technology in the Bourne trilogy, one can sense the technological acceleration.  

To me, one of the most intriguing elements of future shock that we of the X gen (and earlier) are going to face is the interconnectedness of those now in their tweens and 20's.  Recent studies now show that children are connected to some form of media almost continually, and that trend is also likely to continue.  The media saturation of the upcoming generation will make the concerns of those who railed against a generation "raised by television" seem completely ridiculous.  Many of the newer generation do not get their information/entertainment through traditional media, such as television and film; my wife is in almost constant contact with my niece, who is attending college out-of-state, via text messaging, which is my niece's main form of communication.  Texting, and the cell-phone network were a major source of turing out the youth vote for Obama in '08, and that lesson seems to have been lost.  

I too, find myself having to explain things to my kids, that they simply can't understand.  My 7 year old still doesn't understand when I try to explain to him what a "broadcast" is on the television, and why we can't just watch whatever we want, whenever we want.  

On the other hand, he is obsessed lately with Star Wars, and loves John Wayne movies.  Good v. evil is still a compelling storyline, regardless of its' technological patina.  

I would suggest that maybe our understanding of the pace of change has also undergone an acceleration as well.  Edward Bellamy's "Looking Backward," Burroughs "Tarzan" and "Martian" series were all attempts to address the same feelings of technological shock; for that matter, so is "Rip van Winkle."  It seems more dramatic to us (and it is more dramatic) because we are so much more capable of observing the changes occuring around us than our parents were.  But the attempt to make sense of it, and to adjust to the moral and ethical implications of rising technology, is an old theme.  And many of those old themes reverberate; look at zoning laws restricting the placement of "adult shops" near schools, and consider how absurd that is when porn is ubiquitous and readily accesible, 24/7, at home, even for the under-aged, most of whom regard "sexting" as innocuous fun.  Witness the recent attempt to prosecute a bunch of teenagers for sending naked pics of themselves to each other via cell phones, and being accused of disseminating child pornography.  Old rules just don't seem to apply, and seem absurd on their face.  

I think we tend to look at these things from the perspective of changes in technology, but I also tend to think that we underestimate the extent of techno-shock throughout history.  "Candide" and "Justine" are examples of "moderns" of the day assailing those with "antiquated notions."  That's why I say it's perhaps our understanding of the pace of change that has accelerated; we can all sit around and rattle off vast changes in technology, social history, cultural history, etc.  We understand it intimately, if not quite intuitively.  Film is just a convenient, common language we can all use to demonstrate that we are talking about the same thing.  Try getting into a discussion with an audiophile about changes in the recording industry, technological innovations with synthesizers, etc.  

I think Chris Bowers hit one out of the park with his notion of "personal paid media."  Look at the amount Scott Brown spent optimizing his exposure via Google.  In that vein, how do we go about harnessing the cellphone network that our youth are immersed in, and turn that into more of a driver of political involvement?  It seems to me that is your real thrust.  

BTW, if you've never read them, Greg Bear's EON and David Brin's Earth are both worth a read.  They both made highly accurate predictions about where the media revolution is taking us, and Bear's use of "picting" as the primary form of interpersonal communications seems to be dead-on.  

Sorry to take up so much space.  Like you said, it's a fascinating and rather wide-ranging topic.  


I've noticed this too (4.00 / 1)
Specifically, when watching episodes of Buffy: The Vampire Slayer, which really isn't that old.  But it's just old enough to be on the far side of the cusp of cell phone adoption.  It's amazing how many tension-filled situations would have been nullified by something as (now) commonplace as a cell phone.

meh, read more science fiction (4.00 / 1)
it teaches one how to deal with "future shock" pretty well. i love reading old sci fi stories, for exactly the disconnect you speak of. it's more interesting to me to perceive how the future is imagined, than how closely that imagination matches future reality.

i do agree with the previous poster about cell phones. same deal with email; i was just watching a movie the other night in which the entire plot would've dissolved had the characters been able to use email. i wonder what will be the next "shocking" future technology along those lines. that's the fun about speculative fiction, imho. the good writers understand: it's always the little things that are truly revolutionary. and they're very hard to predict.  







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