There are a few races this cycle that are critical for progressives, and none of them are more important than the one against Mitch McConnell. McConnell is a very powerful member of the Senate, and has effectively outmaneuvered Harry Reid on the floor. He is leading a filibuster of every piece of legislation important to progressives, often substituting in weak amendments that sound progressive or right-wing amendments that force Democrats on the defensive. Fortunately, he's eminently beatable. Here are his latest SUSA numbers, courtesy of the excellent Ditch Mitch blog.
Approval/Disapproval: 48/44%
Let's briefly take a look at the dynamics of the data:
Among Republicans (34% of July survey): In June, McConnell was 73/22%; now he's 67/25%.
Among Democrats (43% of July survey): In June, McConnell was 38/56%; now he's 38/57%.
Among independents (11% of July survey): In June, McConnell was 67%/30%; now he's 39/53%.
McConnell's been severely damaged by the war, by immigration, and by his association with Bush. the war has turned the base of the Democrats viciously against him, his big business immigration stance and his meddling in a messy Republican gubernatorial primary has hurt him in conservative Boone County, and Bush is generally just dragging him down. More significantly, there are a host of economically populist issues that could be used to tremendous effect in Kentucky, including community college funding, education, and health care. The path is open for a progressive challenger similar to Jim Webb, though McConnell will be tough to beat and already has $5.7 million on hand. So who could that be?
Attorney General Greg Stumbo has an explatory committee, and though he a good track record going after corruption in the Governor's office he has his own track record of shadiness. Businessman Charlie Owen is considering a run. I've met Owen and I liked him, but he's taking a long time before deciding whether to jump into the race and has lost three races in his political career. One significant problem for Owen is that he can self-finance, and so does not have to subject himself to the discipline that most candidates have to go through in terms of building a grassroots constituency. Another possible candidate is Andrew Horne, an Iraq vet who lost to John Yarmuth in the primary last cycle. I've also met and liked Horne, and he's been very involved in VoteVets.
There are other possibilities in the race, and we could see late entrants as Kentucky has off-cycle state-wide elections in 2007. I'd actually like to see a female progressive, since that'll make it harder for McConnell to go as negative as he tends to, though I don't know of anyone who fits the bill. Right now, this race feels a bit like Connecticut's primary in 2006 in the sense that a candidate is going to ride on the backs of a movement. This will be an anti-McConnell election, a fight against an entrenched machine. The candidate will basically need to be very progressive, perhaps a bit nativist on immigration, while keeping their head down and the focus on McConnell's behavior. The blogs, campaign finance groups, antiwar groups, anti-immigration groups, and a generally sour anti-Bush mood are hitting McConnell and taking down his approval ratings. He's getting smacked around by the overall environment, and that's not going to stop.
The difference this time is that the DSCC and the Democratic establishment wants him gone as well. The DSCC has already run ads against him, there's a great deal of movement organizing, and this is already a place where there is substantial establishment-activist cooperation.
