I spent this beautiful crisp afternoon canvassing in Sammamish for the Obama-Gregoire-Burner coordinated campaign. Sammamish is a wealthy suburban area full of software types, progressive but with strong bias towards sprawl. For instance, one woman told me she's voting for Obama and Burner but doesn't like Gregoire because Gregoire doesn't want to address transportation problems by widening the highways as much as Rossi does. There are many wealthy immigrants, and a lot of Obama voters who are undecided about the lower ticket races.
The main takeaway from talking to lots of random voters is that basically no one is paying attention to the Congressional race.
The Washington Post maintains a webpage titled "Political Landscape 2008." This webpage has been updated recently enough to reflect Obama's 13.8% polling lead in Pennsylvania, a trend that uses polls released as recently as Wednesday. On this webpage, the Washington Post collects recent polling data, and then declares a state to either be a "battleground," or leaning toward one party or the other. Here are some of their polling averages and diagnoses:
Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)
Notice anything wrong with this list? Could it perhaps be that any state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican?" Could it be that states where Obama leads by 7.3%-13.8% are defined as "battleground states," while states where McCain leads by 2.2%-6.8% are defined as "leaning Republican." Does the uneven math in this strike anyone as problematic?
If California's non-voters made their voices heard, state policies could be dramatically reoriented in a more progressive direction, according to a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), "California's Exclusive Electorate," written by PPIC research director Mark Baldassare.
California's electorate is significantly whiter, older, wealthier, and more educated than the population at large. "As its population has become more diverse, its voters have become less representative of that population," the report, notes. "And the difference between voters and nonvoters is especially stark in attitudes toward government's role; elected officials; and many social issues, policies, and programs."
For example:
• Governor Schwarzenegger's reelection chances would plummet. In May 2006, non-voters disapproved far more sharply (61-21 percent) than likely voters (48-42 percent).
• The $3 billion affordable housing bond (Prop 1C) could easily pass: 80 percent of nonvoters support it, versus 49 percent of likely voters in a May poll.
• California could have bigger government and higher taxes: Nonvoters prefer higher taxes/more services to lower taxes/fewer services by a 66-26 percent margin, compared to 49-44 percent among voters.
The correlations revealed in the report reflect larger relationships observed across time and geographical boundaries. A 2001 paper from the Brookings Institute, "Why Doesn't the United States Have a European-Style Welfare State?" found a direct correlation between welfare state spending and the size of minority populations-the more minorities, the lower the levels of spending. This held true both internationally (comparing more then 60 different countries) and nationally (comparing all 50 states).
The broader pattern this report fit into strongtly indicates that similar sorts of results would be found all across America: if non-voters became voters, the political status quo could change dramatically. That's the number one reason that GOP hates and fears ACORN and Project Vote.
Yesterday, I complained about things that will continue to frustrate me after the impending Democratic landslide is complete. Today, I'd like to balance that out with a series of things that I won't miss after the huge Democratic victories this year. In the extended entry, I list a whole bunch of them.
When I appeared on Fox News earlier this week, the National Review's Rich Lowry regurgitated the right-wing's newest talking point about the financial crisis supposedly being caused by Democrats' refusal to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I, of course, said that was utter bullshit and that the crisis was caused by the private companies. But he and the rest of Wingnuttia doesn't have to believe me - here's McClatchy today:
WASHINGTON - As the economy worsens and Election Day approaches, a conservative campaign that blames the global financial crisis on a government push to make housing more affordable to lower-class Americans has taken off on talk radio and e-mail...
Federal housing data reveal that the charges aren't true, and that the private sector, not the government or government-backed companies, was behind the soaring subprime lending at the core of the crisis.
Facts are persistent things, aren't they? (h/t Atrios)
Update (Chris): The McCain campaign has joined in the conservative claim that the financial crisis was caused by banks being bullied by the diversity policie into giving loans to minorities. From the McCain campaign website:
The ad highlights Barack Obama's involvement with ACORN, a group now accused of widespread voter fraud across the country and accused of advocating for the very type of home loans that have led to today's financial crisis.
Conservatives claim that diversity caused the financial crisis. John McCain agress. It ain't just the crowds at McCain events, people.
Last night, on Bill Moyers Journal (transcript here), we saw both sides of Bill Moyers. In Part 1, I wrote about the good side, his interview with George Soros. Now, I'm writing about his not-so-good side, his interview with Kathleen Hall Jamieson and her drum-beat "balanced" criticism of the presidential campaign.
As I noted in that first diary, Jamieson actually does some very good work, and is sometimes extremely sharp. But this time, not so much, as she showed her more conventional, intellectually lazy, sloppy side, and her addiction to the "balance" narrative, equating the McCain campaign's William Ayers attack ad with Barack Obama's Keating 5 web video.
Blaring across the front page of the Seattle Times today are two stories - one is about Palin and troopergate, but the other, in the fabled top left quadrant, is on McCain's comments about Obama being a decent man. The headline blared across the top is McCain Defends Obama. Already five people to me today have expressed wonderment that McCain is doing this. Finally. He's returning to the man he was before this campaign.
After yesterday's rush job, I cleaned up the House Forecast, and posted the latest version online here. I think I have removed all of the mistakes now, and also updated for all of the latest polling information. Next week, I will add in the latest financial figures, thus providing an even clearer picture of where the campaign stands.
The current projection shows a net Democratic gain of 17-25 seats, making it my best forecast for Democrats yet this cycle. This projection suggests a Democratic Congress of anywhere between D 253-183 R to D 261-175 R. Here are the category changes since October 7th:
AL-02 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
AZ-01 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
AZ-03 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
FL-16 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Toss-up"
FL-21 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
FL-25 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
MI-07 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
MI-09 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
MO-09 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
NE-02 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "uncompetitive"
VA-05 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
In 2006, I underestimated Democratic net gains because I forecasted 2-3 Democratic losses. I am starting to wonder if I am making the same mistake this time. Right now, I forecast Democrats losing 4-7 seats, but that is starting to feel awfully high. When this is all said and done, Democrats have a very good chance of winning as many seats as they did in 2006 (30), and acquiring the 100 seat majority Kos has talked about.
Over the next week, as my schedule clears up a bit, I will be re-introducing several activism campaigns targeted at House and Senate races. This is the election where we need to mop up as many seats as possible, and build an overwhelming majority that can govern for a long, long time.
Last night, on Bill Moyers Journal (transcript here), we saw both sides of Bill Moyers. We saw him, if not at his very best, then certainly very, very good, and better than most folks ever get on tv. He interviewed George Soros, and they covered a wide range of big topics in very straight-forward, demystifying terms.
Then in the second half, we saw his bad side. Not the worst, by any means, but the worst in terms of regular features, which is to say, Kathleen Hall Jamieson and her drum-beat "balanced" criticism of the presidential campaign. Jamieson actually does some very good work, and is sometimes extremely sharp. But she also gets lazy, sloppy and/or thoughtlessly conventional at times, and that was certainly the case last night. I'll deal with her segment in a second, briefer diary. But for now, I want to look at the good--not perfect, not spectacular, but definitely quite good side of what Moyers had to offer last night.
It's not really that amazing. But it's clearly stated, and it comes from a guy who's as rich as sin, so calling him a DFH just rolls off his back like water off a duck.
Today's five tracking poll numbers are in and show that Barack Obama has widened his lead to 8.3 points:
You can final the individual poll numbers in Quick Hits. After four days just under 50 percent, Obama made a significant move upward today.
In addition to this measure, the Real Clear Politics average shows a 7.6 Obama lead and the Pollster trend estimates have a spread of 8.5 points in favor of Obama. While the Presidential race isn't over, attention is increasingly turning to House, Senate and other local races. If you have any money left after the market crash and want to get better democrats elected, here is the link.
I've been following the issue of voter suppression off and on for virtually my entire life. I can remember watching live reports from Selma, Alabama, when I was a teenager. Even before that, I remember the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party and its challenge to the seating of the segregationist "regular Democrat" delegation at the 1964 DNC. But my appreciation of the issue was boosted dramatically in 2000 by the publication of Alexander Keyssar's comprehensive historical analysis, The Right to Vote: The Contested History of Democracy in the United States, swiftly followed by the debacle in Florida, which revealed various different forms of voter suppression all at work simultaneously.
Increasingly, throughout the 2000s, ACORN and Project Vote have been on the forefront of the struggle to push back voter suppression, and give full voice to those routinely sidelined from participation in our democracy. I'm planning to post a longer diary of my own later this weekend, but to kick things off, I'm posting this diary, primarily composed of a press release from ACORN setting the record straight about just what is going on in the struggle for democracy here at home today.
(One of the most devastating consequences of Bush Administration policy--not just the financial meltdown we are now experiencing--has been the systematic neglect of state and local governments, which have suffered two of the worst financial crunches in history under Bush. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
The financial crisis has dug in its heels and Treasury's plan to buy up troubled assets hasn't been able to dislodge them. There have been numerous reports that the crisis has spread outward from Wall Street to afflict auto dealerships and the commercial paper that businesses and public institutions use to meet payroll. But when The New York Timesreported last week that cities, states, and local governments are having difficulty in bond markets - stoking fears that infrastructure projects, services, and payrolls will have to be canceled or scaled back - MayorTV decided to set off to several cities to ask mayors how the financial downturn is affecting them.
Our first stop was Stamford, Connecticut where Mayor Dannel Malloy was anything but optimistic about the economy.
"Today's report shows that the Governor acted within her proper and lawful authority in the reassignment of Walt Monegan.
TRUTH: This was never in doubt. The governor can fire the public safety commissioner for any reason at all, or for no reason at all. Pretending that this is the issue is just a typical GOP lie.
McCain-Palin:
The report also illustrates what we've known all along: this was a partisan led inquiry run by Obama supporters....
TRUTH: The Legislative Council voted 12-0 to release the report. Republicans control the council, 8-4. The report was authorized well before Palin became McCain's VP choice, and she publicly pledged to cooperate at least 13 times, including twice evan after being named as McCain's running mate, before abruptly changing her position. For example, McCain-Palin Press Release, August 30:
Governor Palin is an open book on this - she did nothing wrong and has nothing to hide. As a reformer and a leader on ethics reform, she has been happy to cooperate fully in the inquiry of this matter.
McCain-Palin:
...and the Palins were completely justified in their concern regarding Trooper Wooten given his violent and rogue behavior.
TRUTH: Not according to the Branchflower report (PDF, RTF ZIP):
In the remarkable outpouring of ugly bigotry, a lot of people have finally woken up to the real nature of the Republican Party as a group of sadistic criminally minded yet competently organized citizens. It's important to realize that what is being put on display isn't just racism against Obama, it's a full-on orgy of revulsion towards of anyone who believes in non-authoritarian ideas like equality for women, multiculturalism, or economic justice for all. I happened upon a slew of right-wing email forwards today; the below picture is from a right-wing email titled 'Rudy Giuliani's Push To Save America...'
You might think that this can be excused as just a joke, but that would be foolish. Republicans constantly fantasize about murdering prominent liberals, not just Hillary Clinton but Supreme Court Justices. Their fantasies carry them into ritualized Birth of a Nation-style erotic fear-mongering about black men and white women. This video has over 2M views, and conservatives are emailing it to each other and saying that it is Obama's preacher.
On the flip is an email forward about Obama that ends with the line "The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the US from the inside out, what better way to start than at the highest level - through the President of the United States, one of their own!!!!"
