LA-Sen: Landrieu Threatened By Party Switcher
Even though he hasn't declared yet, in Louisiana Treasurer John N. Kennedy Republicans might have their first, serious chance of defeating a full-term, Democratic incumbent since Tom Daschle. After long being recruited to do so, Kennedy has now switched parties:
In a move that could throw a shadow over growing Dem optimism about making gains in the Senate in 2008, Louisiana Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced today that he is switching from the Democrats over to the Republican Party - a change widely seen as being a preliminary move towards challenging Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu.
While Landrieu is vulnerable, on the bright side, Kennedy ran for Senate as recently as 2004, as a Democrat. He finished in a dismal third place with 15%, well behind Democrat Chris John who took 29%. So, as a campaigner, he may not be all that formidable a foe.
Edwards Up In Rasmussen National Poll
In the daily Rasmussen tracking poll, John Edwards has reached or surpassed 15% in six of the last seven days, including 17% today and 18% yesterday. Additionally, he now only trails Obama by 4%. This is significant, since Edwards has never surpassed 15% since Rasmussen began daily tracking, since he only reach 15% twice from July 29th through August 20th, and since he has been at least 8% behind Obama for several months in this poll. It will be worth watching to see if this becomes a real trend, or if it is just a random, short term blip.
Candidate Support Still Fluid In 2008 Primaries
Pollster.com looks at a recent Michigan poll showing Gore ahead, and makes the following important conclusion:
This result does help demonstrate something useful, however, which has less to do with Gore than with the current support for the frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Just how real (or solid) is her support, at least among Michigan Democrats? The fact that preference for Clinton drops from 45% to 32% with Gore's name included, suggests that many of her supporters remain open to an alternative. Less clear, of course, is whether any of the actual candidates (Obama, Edwards or any of the others) can replicate Gore's apparent appeal among Michigan Democrats (as support for the others also drops with Gore included). But the fact that the simple addition of Gore's name to the list of choices shakes up current preferences to this degree tells us that the vote preferences we are watching are still tentative, and the Democratic race is still a long way from over.
While it may seem that candidate support is fairly static in 2008, it is also pretty soft. Once major events occur in the campaign, such as the results of the first primaries and caucuses, expect big changes in all polls, both national and on a state by state basis.
Punidtocracy Occupies Non-Partisan, Non-Ideological Fringe
Basically, an entire generation of David Broder acolytes are joining him in decrying partisanship and ideology in the political process, as demonstrated by their lust for Michael Bloomberg. As Kos notes, these pundits are the political fringe, since Bloomberg never receives more than 10% in any national poll. And of course they are on the fringe, as most people identify with one party or another, and with either conservatism or progressivism / liberalism (even if they don't always understand what their self-identification means). The lust for corporate, billionaire bi-partisanship is primarily a phenomenon of the pundit class that grew up hating hippies. Unfortunately, since pundits appear to hold their jobs for life, we may have to keep putting up with this nonsensical fringe for at least another twenty years or so.
Entire Pacific Coast Now Deep Blue According to Survey USA, Clinton leads Giuliani 52-42 in Oregon, 55-40 in California, and 56-39 in Washington. Those are the best matchups for the GOP on the West Coast. I think the days of Washington and Oregon as "swing states" are over. The Pacific coast is now deep blue. Maybe Alaska could follow before long…
