i agree (4.00 / 2)

I think the only reason that you do an early ad buy is to tell the voters who you are - Edwards continues to do well in Iowa and lets face it he spent a bucket load of cash in 2004 on "letting the voters know who he is" add to that that he has "been to Iowa so many times he nearly qualifies as a resident" as many political commentators have said.

I don't think he needs to tell Iowa who he is - but rather compare himself to the other candidates - and its still to early for that.

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by: alicescheshirecat @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:35:30 AM CDT

Edwards has a very solid base of support (0.00 / 0)

The events of the last four months show that Edwards has a very solid base of Iowans who remain in his corner despite seeing dozens of ads by his rivals. No one knows how the undecideds will break, but the current Edwards supporters are not going to abandon ship.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 16:27:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very troubling for Obama (0.00 / 0)

He can have all the money in the world but what this shows is that so far it isn't moving anyone towards him. I really do think he could end up fourth in Iowa. Looks to me like Edwards is playing it just right - he is still in touch of the lead despite all that expenditure from others. Once he opens up on TV it could end in a blowout and that would transform the whole race.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:44:39 AM CDT

it may have moved some people (0.00 / 0)

but it's not moving enough of the over-50 crowd.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:54:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

the main reason Kerry beat Edwards in IA (4.00 / 1)

last time was that Kerry's campaign had put together a better network of precinct captains and field organizers in the summer and fall of 2003.

Both candidates had a lot of momentum in the final weeks, but Kerry had more people out there doing GOTV. This was especially a factor in several of the medium-sized cities in Iowa, where Kerry ended up diong much better than Edwards on caucus night (Dubuque, Quad Cities, Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Mason City).

The Edwards campaign has rightly focused on organization rather than television in Iowa to date. I'm sure he will run some ads closer to caucus night, but I'm not at all bothered by his lack of spending on tv in IA to date.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:53:00 AM CDT

smart bet by Edwards (0.00 / 0)

He doesn't have to introduce himself again to Iowa voters. But he is being smart and spending alot of time in Iowa and, I assume, working the free media hard to keep his name and face on the news.  He's making the bet that media buys don't give you the bang for the buck that they used to.  Romney used them to good affect to 'win' the Iowa straw poll.  But he spent alot to do that for marginal payoff.  Now, at some point, Edwards will need to dive into the Iowa market.  But the question is, has he blocked in ad time in advance?  Is is possible for Clinton and Obama to shut out Edwards simply by buying up all of the finite ad time?  I do know this, whatever ads Edwards or any of the candidates run they will have to be innovative and not risk averse.  People have developed a filter to many of the TV ads and many of them get tuned out.I'd create a story with the series of ads where each one begins where the last one ended off.  Blending, so to speak, the myriad of issues that exist.  How the Iraq war impacts our energy and foreign policy, how dealing with global warming affects our economic future, how the Iraq War paralyzes our ability to address global warming with international credibility, the ads can be bridged one to the other with proper messaging leaving the viewer eager to hear the next ad and reducing the chance that the message will be tuned out.  I don't know, I'm trying to think outside the box.

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by: gaspare @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:59:11 AM CDT

Organization (4.00 / 2)

Organixation is important in IA and Obama HAS PUT A LOT OF MONEY IN INFRASTRUCTURE and organization.

The Harkin steak fry showed it. 15 buses fron 10 different areas in IA over 30000 people.

My friends in Desmoines estimated that half of the people at the steak fry were hard core supporter's of a candidate. Obama HAD 50% OF THAT NUMBER.

They were impressed with his organization and very surprised,

They are not Obama supporter's. One is a Edwards supporter and the other is a Richardson supporter.

It remains to be seen whether this support turn's out on Caucus night.

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by: BDM @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 13:14:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Organization (0.00 / 0)

OOP'S I meant 3000 people.

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by: BDM @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 13:15:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

true, and knowing how to work the caucus voter (0.00 / 0)

Kerry won big by peeling off the other candidates supporters during the second and third rounds of voting.  Clinton and Edwards will have the most seasoned trained supporters doing this.  Obama may also be getting his organization skilled to do this.  I suspect this caucus will be like no other.

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by: gaspare @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 14:11:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clinton (0.00 / 0)

is making mistakes along the way that work best if you don't give her a chance to recover.

ie, the lobbist statement, the length of time for  her healthcare plan, her vote today on Iran- these are all fertile ground.

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by: bruhrabbit @ Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 16:33:48 PM CDT