And Now For Something Completely Stupid

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 03:57


Over at MyDD, Jonathan Singer has this gem from the Giuliani campaign:

If these are the process stories campaigns revert to in lieu of fundraising numbers, maybe I was wrong to complain about media coverage of fundraising yesterday. The last seven head to head polls between Clinton and Giuliani show Clinton winning by an average of 5%, and yet the Giuliani campaign thinks that it is heading to a 400-500 electoral vote landslide against Clinton. That is some interesting math. In fact, the latest polls from every state show Clinton already four points or more in states worth significantly more electoral votes than those where Giulaini leads by four points or more:

Clinton 250, Giuliani 182, Swing 106

(Note: the seeming four point incongruence comes from the new election law in North Carolina that would give at least four votes to the Democratic nominee.)
The Giuliani map seems to be a result of three factors. First, they suck at math. Second, they have no problem whatsoever with lying. Third, they are convinced that it is still September 12th, 2001. I am actually glad they released it, however, because something this utterly mega-stupid puts to rest any fears I had of Giuliani winning the Republican nomination. Surely, you can’t have a campaign this stupid and still win the Republican nomination, can you?

Oh, wait. Never mind. Perhaps a more accurate statement is that the world is just as flat for Giuliani as it is for other Republicans.

Update: I think the funniest thing about this map is that Giuliani doesn't even know what states he is ahead in. He lists Arizona as swing, for example, despite significant leads in the state.
Chris Bowers :: And Now For Something Completely Stupid

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WV poll #'s (4.00 / 1)
Chris -- I've got some WV poll numbers for you. The original story seems to be offline, but some of the figures were excerpted in this West Virginia Blue diary. (Maybe you can find more in Lexis/Nexis?)
Clinton 42
Guiliani 26
Undecided 22
The poll was commissioned by MetroNews, the media company owned by Raese, the Republican who ran against Byrd last cycle. Apparently, his numbers were so low against Rockefeller in this polling that he's decided not to waste any more of his money self-funding another pointless race. :-)

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue

Cool (4.00 / 1)
Will update with my next map!

[ Parent ]
Oh Chris! The World Is Only Flat (0.00 / 0)
because Bill Clinton let al Qaeda flatten the Twin Towers.

Have you learned nothing from The Path to 9/11???

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"


Miss him already (0.00 / 0)
I am actually glad they released it, however, because something this utterly mega-stupid puts to rest any fears I had of Giuliani winning the Republican nomination.

Au contraire, mon ami - I am (was?) looking forward to a Giuliani nomination. Months of ensuing laughter on the late-night talk shows, endless riffs on SNL, and enough material to challenge even Jon Stewart. Everything that is wrong with the war-mongers is embodied in the Giuliani campaign, and exposing that to the white-hot blinding brilliance of a presidential election would be justice indeed.

ps To the poster with the embedded video above: go away. Not everyone has unlimited bandwidth to load running videos that have nothing to do with the topic at hand.


Thank you, Moderating deity <eom> (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
NC Electoral Apportionment (0.00 / 0)
"(Note: the seeming four point incongruence comes from the new election law in North Carolina that would give at least four votes to the Democratic nominee.)"

I thought NC shot down this law. Man, I have got to read the local papers more.


I don't know if it is that stupid (0.00 / 0)
At least, not as long as the Giuliani campaign actually believes it.  What exactly do you expect them to say, "We have no chance of winning, but you should vote for us anyways?"  They need to have an optimistic definition of a swing state as one they have a shot of winning if everything goes perfect for them and Hillary Clinton gets bogged down in some weird, harmful scandal.

And on the flip side, Democrats are bad at this sort of salesmanship in campaigns.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


What is Swing (0.00 / 0)
So the Giuliani campaign chooses a value for swinging that puts a lot of what you classify as blue states in the purple category.  This isn't a stupid map, it is smart propaganda.  So what if  they have to define swing at 5% or 10% if it lets them make that map, then its good propaganda.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama


Propaganda has to seem vaguely credible (0.00 / 0)
Except that a recent poll had Giuliani losing New York to Clinton by about 25 points. Besides, if that was the case he'd have to mark most of the red states as also being swing.

If it were a little bit less moronically optimistic, then it might be good propaganda. As it is, Giuliani is just overflowing with shit.

And strategising badly. If he showed the maps versus Obama and Edwards he could get away with classifying a lot more of blue states as swing.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
Awesome title, BTW (0.00 / 0)
Always good to have a Monte Python reference in politics.

Actually, I guess I should say, an INTENTIONAL Monte Python reference-- lord knows there's a lot of accidental satire in politics these days.


Well, I'm Sure That Dick Cheney (0.00 / 0)
thought it was really funny brining back the Spanish Inquisition, just when we least expected it.  And that was as intentional as all get out.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

[ Parent ]
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