Hillary Clinton’s increasing Democratic primary advantage in states like New Hampshire and Iowa can also be seen in her remarkable turnaround in general election matchups. Looking only at how Obama and Clinton, the two Democratic candidates who have opted out of public financing, fare against Rudy Giuliani (Clinton data here, Obama data here), check out how Clinton moves from performing significantly worse, to performing the same, to performing better over the past eight months:
Clinton and Obama vs. Giuliani, Non-Rasmussen polls Note: ”Advantage” shows the relative advantage of Clinton or Obama in matchups against Giuliani
Poll
Date
Clinton
Obama
CAdvantage
NPR
Oct 07
47-44
44-44
Clinton +3
FOX
Sep 26
46-39
41-40
Clinton +6
CNN
Sep 09
50-46
45-49
Clinton +8
Q-poll
Aug 13
46-43
42-42
Clinton +3
NBC / WSJ
Jul 30
47-41
45-40
Clinton +1
Fox
Jul 18
46-41
45-41
Clinton +1
Battleground
Jul 18
44-50
53-43
Obama +15
Gallup
Jul 15
46-49
45-49
Clinton +1
Zogby
Jul 14
46-41
46-42
Clinton +1
CNN
Jun 24
49-48
46-48
Clinton +3
Cook
Jun 23
45-44
42-41
Even
Newsweek
Jun 21
51-44
49-44
Clinton +2
Cook
Jun 17
42-42
41-41
Even
Gallup
Jun 14
50-46
50-45
Obama +1
Q-poll
Jun 11
45-44
42-42
Clinton +1
LA Times
Jun 10
39-49
46-41
Obama +15
Zogby
May 20
43-48
48-42
Obama +11
Hotline
May 20
43-45
43-41
Obama +4
Newsweek
May 03
49-46
50-43
Obama +4
Marist
May 01
48-43
41-43
Clinton +7
Q-poll
May 01
40-49
41-44
Obama +6
Hotline
Apr 30
43-47
48-39
Obama +13
LA Times
Apr 09
42-48
46-42
Obama +10
Time
Apr 09
43-48
45-45
Obama +5
Fox
Mar 28
44-45
43-43
Obama +1
Time
Mar 26
41-50
44-45
Obama +8
Note: Only polls that collected data on Clinton vs. Giuliani and Obama vs. Giuliani in the same survey are included, as those are the only apples to apples comparisons possible.
In nine of the ten oldest polls in this chart, from March 26th through June 10th, Obama held a general election advantage over Clinton. At that time, the Marist poll showing Clinton with an advantage was clearly an outlier. However, over the next fifteen polls, from June 11th through today, Clinton held the advantage in twelve polls, two were tied, and the GW Battleground poll weighed in with a clear outlier. (As they say, one out of every twenty polls is way off, and so the presence of two outliers in this chart is not anomalous.)
At a quick glance, I am seeing three periods in this chart, the first showing Obama with about a six-point edge (late March through early June), the second showing a virtual tie (mid-June through early August), and the third period showing Clinton with a modest advantage of about four points (mid-August through today). Overall, Clinton has improved her performance against Giuliani relative to Obama by about ten points over the last seven months. It is entirely possible that will reverse itself at some point, since the five months of general election polling before this chart, Clinton actually started with the advantage in November 2006, but Obama caught up and passed her over the next five months. Then again, it is possible that Obama’s rise from comparative obscurity meant that his favorable ratings hit an all-time peak around March and April of 2006 during his “rockstar” media coverage phase, and now they have inevitably fallen a bit. That, combined with slowing lowering opinions of Giuliani and slowly improving opinions of Clinton, could also produce the trends we see here.
Information comparing Clinton and Obama to Mitt Romney is extremely rare, as there has only been one survey that asked both questions in the same survey the last three months (see here and here). Obama performed four points better in that poll, but it is only one data point and both Democrats crushed Romney (Clinton +13 and Obama +17). When it comes to Clinton and Obama versus Fred Thompson, the last five apples to apples polls shows the two performing identically against Thompson. Those five polls, taken from August 7th until today, show Clinton with an average lead of 10.8%, and Obama with an average lead of 10.6%. That has also changed over time, as Obama once held a noticeable edge:
Clinton and Obama vs. Thompson, Non-Rasmussen polls Note: ”Advantage” shows the relative advantage of Clinton or Obama in matchups against Thompson
Poll
Date
Clinton
Obama
Advantage
NPR
Oct 07
50-42
48-39
Obama +1
FOX
Sep 26
48-35
45-33
Clinton +1
NBC
Sep 10
50-41
47-38
Even
CNN
Sep 09
55-42
53-41
Clinton +1
Q-poll
Aug 13
49-38
46-35
Even
Fox
Jul 18
47-38
48-32
Obama +7
Battleground
Jul 18
47-45
56-33
Obama +21
Gallup
Jul 15
48-45
51-40
Obama +8
Zogby
Jul 14
47-41
48-40
Obama +2
CNN
Jun 24
50-46
52-40
Obama +8
Cook
Jun 23
45-40
46-35
Obama +6
Newsweek
Jun 21
53-42
53-39
Obama +3
Cook
Jun 17
42-42
46-33
Obama +13
Q-poll
Jun 11
46-39
46-34
Obama +5
Fox
Jun 06
48-38
47-34
Obama +3
Zogby
May 20
48-41
52-35
Obama +10
Q-poll
May 01
46-39
47-34
Obama +6
Again, a consistent Obama advantage dissipated, and now the two leading Democrats perform identically against Fred Thompson in general election matchups. As with the Giuliani numbers, this suggests that Clinton is rising both against other Democrats and against all Republicans. Clearly, she is running a very strong campaign, but there is not guarantee this trend will continue indefinitely.
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