I noticed that Weirauch didn't mention Iraq in her ads, but did go aggressively on gas prices, health care, and an antipartisan 'Washington is broken' message. I suspect that had something to do with the apathetic muddle of the electorate, a muddle which several commenters on Dailykos mentioned they heard from voters when they were phonebanking. The alternative conventional wisdom on the loss is that Republicans dropped a whole bunch of money and prevented us from grabbing this one under the radar.
Regardless, there's a problem with taking Iraq off the table in favor of other issues like the economy or health care. And that is, very simply, that Iraq is linked to the economy and health care; a dollar spent in Iraq is a dollar not spent on health care. The issues may not separated in voters' minds, but they are separated on polling questions and therefore in the political strategies Democrats adopt. This separation is just an assumption by pollsters, and I don't know if there has been a lot of testing to justify it. Do voters really stop caring about Iraq when the economy turns bad, or are the two problems linked? Certainly the economy and Iraq are linked, and the same leadership that screwed up one screwed up the other. But the data doesn't tell us whether voters get this story, because it assumes there is no overall story to tell. People are interested in Iraq or health care but not both.
After going over thirty pages of polling data at Polling Report on Iraq, I noticed that the lines of questioning are mostly organized around military tactics and strategy - are we winning, should we pull out troops, is Bush doing a good job. They have little to do with what people actually think about the war in Iraq. Why did we go to war? Why are we there? What do you think of the trade-offs in being there? Do you think that spending money in Iraq is hurting the economy here? Are we there for oil? Is America bogged down in Iraq? Is Iraq preventing America from investing in a better energy system?
We don't have data on these questions, because pollsters aren't asking them. And because Iraq is set against health care and the economy in most polling, the issues are seen as competitive. But are they? Can you really talk about the economy without talking about Iraq? I don't know, but I doubt it.
Anyway, on the flip I published a polling memo from the House Democratic Caucus, Rahm's shop, gleefully claiming that the economy has superseded Iraq as the number one issue on voters' minds, and that Democrats are trusted on the economy. I wonder why that message didn't work in Ohio's 5th district. There are many possible explanations, of course, and I'm not sure that talking about Iraq would have made a difference. But we have seen this movie before.
To: House Democratic Caucus, Reporters, Interested Parties
From: House Democratic Caucus Communications Office
Re: New Polls: Economy is Priority Number One for Americans
With home values dropping, and the costs of health care, home heating oil, and a college education continuing to rise, American families are justifiably uneasy about their ability to make ends meet in a declining economy. Now, new polls from CBS News/ New York Times, CNN, ABC News/Washington Post and Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times find that Americans trust Democrats over Republicans to handle the economy, and rank the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Recent poll highlights are included below.
Economy is Priority Number One for Voters. The latest CNN poll, and the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll both found the economy to be the top issue for voters, and the most important issue voters will consider when casting their vote for President. [CNN, 12/11/07; Washington Post, 12/11/07]
Americans Trust Democrats Over Republicans to Handle Economy. In the CBS News/New York Times poll, 49% of the American people said they trust Democrats to ensure a strong economy while only 31% trust Republicans. When Americans were asked which party they trusted to handle the economy by the ABC News/ Washington Post poll, Democrats led by an 18 point margin, 51%- 33%. [CBS News/New York Times , 12/11/07; Washington Post, 12/11/07]. The country also trusts Democrats over Republicans 45%-30% to restart the economy if we fall into a recession, according to the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. [CNN, 12/11/07; Bloomberg/ Los Angeles Times, 12/4/07]
Americans Believe the Economy is Struggling, and Getting Worse. The latest CBS News/ New York Times poll indicates that 57% of the American people say the state of the national economy is bad and 53% believe the economy is getting worse. Additionally, the latest CNN poll found that 54% of Americans believe the state of the economy is poor or very poor and 49% of Americans believe the economy will be in poor or very poor shape one year from now. [CBS News/New York Times , 12/11/07; CNN, 12/11/07]
Americans See High Energy Prices As Economic Threat. When asked by the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll to choose the greatest threat to the economy, more than one-third of Americans selected high energy prices. [Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times , 12/4/07]
Majority Believe America is Already in Recession, Count on Democrats to Revive Economy. According to CNN, 57% of Americans believe the country is in a recession and an additional 26% believe a recession is likely in the next year.
Overwhelming Majority Disapproves of Bush's Handling of Economy. The CBS News/New York Times poll found that despite all the White House talk about fiscal responsibility, only 26% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling the economy while 64% disapprove. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 63% of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy an all-time high for this poll. [CBS News/New York Times , 12/11/07; Washington Post, 12/11/07]
