Quick Thoughts On A Potential Obama Victory

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 16:14


By now, you might have seen screenshots showing Obama advertisements on Drudge. I just received the following comment from the campaign:

Someone is circulating a screengrab of an Obama ad on drudge.  Even
if it's true, it wasn't intentional, the site isn't on the approved
list of sites we advertise on.

This doesn't really surprise me. I've seen Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh ads show up on Open Left because we use Google Ads. That doesn't mean we approve of them, or they approve of us. It just means we use the same advertising vendors, and these things happen sometimes.

Still, while this specific event does not appear to be a problem, even as Obama appears to be inching toward victory in Iowa, I can't help but conclude that an Obama victory will be in spite of most of the progressive blogosphere, rather than because of it. The progressive blogosphere has long urged a confrontational approach to Republicans, something that just doesn't mesh with Obama's rhetoric. I think Atrios summed this situation up rather well yesterday:

In his own subtle way, running against the party - at least to the extent that it's part and parcel with the Village in general - has long been Obama's message. But he's also long been good at blurring just what that meant, wink wink nudge nudge suggesting he was running to its left even as he used rhetoric which suggested he was running as David Broder's love child.

Progressive bloggers complain about Democrats too, but not in the centrist way that Obama seems to be doing. Marc Ambinder writes:

Obama's closing argument is more audacious than it seems; it's an end-run around the established interests of the Democratic Party. He is angering -- often deliberately -- some of the party's core constituencies; Markos "Daily Kos" Moulitsas and my Atlantic colleague, Matt Yglesias, have both (sort of) withdrawn their endorsements of Obama because of his penchant for allegedly using right-wing talking points to smear his Democratic rivals.

Obama just isn't using the same arguments or rhetoric that the progressive blogosphere uses about Republicans and Democrats. He is also, as both Matt and Jerome have noted several times, building his own, in-house activist movement instead of working with the existing progressive movement. And so, even though he is clearly at least the second favorite in the progressive blogosphere, if he wins, it will be in spite of the progressive blogosphere, rather than because of it.

If Obama does win the nomination, I hope that his campaign will be more willing to work with the progressive blogosphere than it was in the primary. Also, an Obama victory will be at least partially for progressive reasons: huge grassroots support, opposition to the war from the start, and a generational shift in politics. I remain unsettled both by the role of progressive media during an Obama administration, by a what seems to be his willingness to compromise with Republicans who never compromise themselves, and by what seems be an almost complete unwillingness to promote progressivism itself.  However, there are some good things about him too, and I am more than willing to both help him out, and to keep criticizing him, in the event that he wins the nomination.

Chris Bowers :: Quick Thoughts On A Potential Obama Victory

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New. (4.00 / 1)
I think it might be because he's a newbie. I don't think he yet realizes that he can have a "come here, disaffected Republicans" attitude while still criticizing them left and right.

I think the blogosphere would have done better to have shown up at his campaign rallies and constantly probe him on why he doesn't criticize the Republicans enough, as opposed to all but endorse another guy that is kinda-sorta doing what we want him to do.


I hope the blogosphere is more willing to work with him. (0.00 / 0)
'Cause people like Jerome Armstrong have been nothing short of hostile toward the Obama campaign in their support of John Edwards.

[ Parent ]
I think you have it backwards (4.00 / 4)
In all due respect, I think the comment, "I hope that his campaign will be more willing to work with the progressive blogosphere than it was in the primary" nails the fact of why the netroots leaders such as yourself are having such a hard time with Obama.  If he becomes president it won't be that he might or might not be willing to work with the progressive blogosphere but that the progressive blogosphere might be willing to work with him.  You are the tail not the dog.

Can you see the difference in what I'm saying?  Its important because being president is such a huge egotistical exercise- for any candidate.  Obama is building his own activist group as you say but its not directly aimed at the progressive blogosphere.  You guys aren't targets or victims here.  You are just other players.  Sorry.  He's needs an organization devoted to him and his goals.

What goals?  Obama is making sort of the same case that Reagan made in 1980, but in reverse.  Reagan basically made the case to independent voters back then that he wouldn't get rid of the sacred progressive democrat programs so thus he took away the compelling reason to vote for the democrat Carter (who people didn't love).  Thus Reagan won and in doing so with his programs shifted the center of american politics to the right- where it still is. 

Obama is attempting to do the opposite and naturally that bothers the progressive blogosphere which wants to hear their themes from all democrats running.  Here's the crucial thing: that doesn't mean that he's at odds with you.  Just don't expect to see him acknowledging you right now.  I'm sure that's much too hard for you to do- take him on faith, but there you go.  That's why he's building his own organization and not using yours.


Nice point (4.00 / 1)
I would also add that there seems to be a conflating of progressives and the progressive blogosphere by bloggers on this site as well as DailyKos, MyDD, etc.  They are not the same thing.  The "frontpagers" on the major progressive blogs have certain views that may or may not match with Obama.  That doesn't make either one of them less progressive.  The ends are the same, it's just a disagreement on the means. 

Of course if you think Obama truly doesn't want universal health care or workers rights or a more progressive tax system or to get out of Iraq, then that's another argument entirely.  And one that would be very hard to win.


[ Parent ]
Interesting Point (4.00 / 2)
You raise some excellent points.  I have been doing some research on failed Presidencies and if you look at the next President, there tends to be a dramatic shift.  Hoover was followed by FDR, Carter (I like the guy but he was a failed President) was followed by Reagan.  Bush is a failed President and likely to go down with Buchanan and Hoover as one of our worst.

If you look at the Dem field, Hillary and Edwards are not dramatic breaks.  Hillary will be a restoration of the Clinton legacy and Edwards, regardless of his new, improved 2008 rhetoric, is a white Southern male as our last 2 Presidents have been. 

Obama is the one Dem who would be a dramatic break.  It is going to be a fascinating primary season to watch.


[ Parent ]
I don't think it is just ignoring us (0.00 / 0)
I think that there are many instances where Obama has triangulated against us and other progressives. I guess in that sense, we are actually useful to him and coordinating with him, already.

He has a habit of attacking other Democrats from the right, or at least  in using right-wing talking points. It has become an important aspect of his campaign rhetoric.

As far as working together goes, bloggers are not effective simply taking orders to carry out a strategy in which we weren't allowed any input. I think that is good, because I don't think blogs would be very interesting places if we agreed to let outside forces dictate content to us.

I don't really understand the Reagan-Carter analogy you make, but that's no big deal. In the end, Obama might work well as a compromise choice between the establishment and the grassroots, since both sides seem to like him a decent amount. And maybe that, above all, is the best sign that we can work together.

[ Parent ]
Trust (4.00 / 2)
"...take him on faith..."

There is no pattern of behavior in his past, even recently in the senate, that shows why I should have any faith in him to be able to withstand the rabid right, let alone fight them off to push for anything substantially progressive.

I am baffled as to how even now people are supporting Obama in spite of Obama (policies, voting record, rhetoric, political associates).

Stunning.


[ Parent ]
the left blogosphere gets its panties wet (0.00 / 0)
previous comment is absolutely CORRECT and brilliant!!!

i was as much of a deaniac as anyone else and a big ned lamont guy and what happened??????  we got FUCKED!!!

let obama be obama...go along for the ride...he is a brilliant man. 

he is a fucking black man u morons!!!  can u imagine what the press and the nice little iowans would do to him if he were the fire spewing populist that edwards is???  imagine obama being late to all his appearances ala white boy edwards..he would have been labeled as the second coming of hey newton.....dont you guys have a clue how perfect his campaign has been to get to this point? 

he has to be the uniter NOT the divider, but watch him once he gets in office. he will grow the progressive movement so all you guys might finally make a real living!

go obama!  change america!  change the world!


And how exactly is he going to do that? ... (0.00 / 0)
and what precentage do you consider for a uniter? ... 55%?  60%?

[ Parent ]
Hm. (0.00 / 0)
Lack of capitalization aside, this actually makes a reasonable amount of sense.
Kudos to you, friend.

[ Parent ]
thank you! (0.00 / 1)
look i  like edwards, he's my second choice but apologizing for
so many bad votes is not my idea of electability!!

he blew it in 04 by not winning ANYTHING he was supposed to for kerry and then he was a real pussy with cheney.....

the new john edwards amped up by bonior and trippi is way better, but i know
a lot of people sick of southern accented slick dems as being teh only guys we can elect.....edwards aint no charmer like slick willy


[ Parent ]
Believe, damn it! Believe! (4.00 / 1)
You're white aren't you?  As a person of color myself, it seems the only reason why you believe he's secretly progressive (watch him once he gets in office. he will grow the progressive movement) is because he's black.  I swear, this is the unspoken assumption of supporters who insist we should just "believe," when everything points to an administration that will be non-progressive in effect (and maybe intent).*

And according to your "He's black!" logic
it's odd he would spew inflammatory hawkish Pakistan rhetoric because that would trigger the stereotype of black men being prone to violence.  Ridiculous isn't it?  Or the times he has slammed Hillary (You'll be working for me) and Edwards (You're 4 years late on Iraq leadership) in the debates would prove he was "disrespectful" to whites.  This rationale also fails to consider what happens once a president Obama begins to grow the progressive movement, especially considering he ran on transcending partisanship and he is a fucking black man u morons!!!  Won't voters feel betrayed, especially if they're as prone to racism as you believe they are?

Obama needn't be as vocally aggressive as Edwards, just have a voting record that shows where he stands when push comes to shove--or, at least, not vote against basic progressive issues (CAFA, for one). 

Edwards is not Dean or Lamont.  If anything provides cover for progressivism it's being a Southern white man.  Edwards is more electable than Obama against the GOP field. 

*"Effect" in terms what gets past a rabid right wing.


[ Parent ]
Obama knows what the hell he's doing..... (4.00 / 1)
I'm also a Deaniac of old and have warmed-up to Obama with enthusiasm and trepidation.  And I have found myself, surprisingly and perversely, satisfied with Obama's spats/differences with the blog-heads and the likes of Krugman - as I'm also a huge Krugman and Kos fan.  But when you're serious about EXPANDING your/the base - do you think it helps you to have Krugman and Lib Blogs in a bit of vocal opposition?  Hell yes!  It makes Obama a "centrist" - a progressive centrist.  It's brilliant.  (To me the cries of Kos and Krugman smack of the Kucinich supports last time around: "Dean isn't the true progressive!"  But this time they are also the cries of Obama's victory.)  Obama can do this!

Yay! (4.00 / 2)
Obama Sistah Souljah's progressive media heroes. We should appreciate that.

Join us at the Missouri community blog Show Me Progress!

[ Parent ]
As usual, the very idea of democracy stiks in.... (0.00 / 0)
.......in the craw, love that word, of Obama supporters.

Checked out any straw polls at the sites whose managers you mention run?

Nah, too much like using Google to find out some actual info.

If you had checked out those straw polls you'd find that those sites have been substantially for Edwards for over a month. Just about the time when the bright, shiny finish on Senator 'Hope's' campaign started to take a Liebermanesque patina.

In fact, the commenter's on those sites have been after the leaders to endorse for quite a while.

This is the same old tired, Dead Loser Caucus bullshit about the 'sphere being the tiny lil' tail on the dog. I think ReThuglicans know that in fact the 'sphere is more a vicious pit bull when it gets it's dander up.

If you don't agree call up The Macacca Man, ask LieberToad, check with some of the other losers on the ReThug side last cycle.

Thing is we 'sphereoids haven't focused on the likes of Miss Nancy, 'SellOut' Reid or, in fact, Senator 'Hope'. Silly fools that we are we thought they were on our side!

Oh....yeah, check with Lantos and DiFi about that 'lil' dog's bite.

And remember, it took the ReichWing 40 years to get where they are and yet people are taking seriously, that's what these sort of attacks indicate, the egotistical likes of Kos....Jerome....Chris...Matt...Jane....Digby....and a host of others......

In less than five.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.


Paxil time. (4.00 / 1)
I think you need to check the comment sections of many of those blogs you reference. But of course as with all your posts, we just need to bow our heads and say.....yes you are right.
I was very active on that little dog bite of LIEberman,DiFi and Harmon(you left that doosey out), but those were different. And just because everyone of us is not on board your Obama meltdown express, doesn't mean we are not AWARE of the faults of ALL the candidates including the newly sainted Edwards. So don't start crapping all over us who are not swept up by your rhetoric. Let's just agree to disagree, without all the Rovian hystrionics.

[ Parent ]
Oh For God's Sakes Bowers! (4.00 / 2)
If Obama were to win Iowa that does not make him de facto President.

Whoever wins is going to win by probably 5 points max. That is no blowout and the second and maybe even the third runner up will be able to say with all credibility that nothing has changed and there is still a tight nomination contest that is going to go on here. Clinton will handily survive a second place finish if she doesn't win - Edwards less so just because he is financially bankrupt but he won't drop out until his last dime is spent.

How many have won Iowa only to get torched in New Hampshire? More than a few.

The way Iowans think and the way people from New Hampshire think is not the way the rest of the country thinks and regardless of what you and others say about bounces using the old paradigm the people of America are going to be enthusiastic about casting their OWN vote and not the vote of some people in some prior state's primary that they not only do not know, but who also has their own priorities.

As for Obama being a progressive - he is not a progressive, never has been a progressive, and never will be a progressive. He is a centrist Democrat who has fooled a lot of people with his rhetorical ability. And as President he will be sure to disappoint them.

If Obama eeks out a win in Iowa to his own supporters admission it will be because of turnout and that turnout is largely made up of youngsters who are not even normalized citizen of Iowa and are out of staters who only go to school there. If Obama can't win with real Iowans he doesn't deserve to win IMO.


This is ridiculous (0.00 / 0)
"If Obama does win the nomination, I hope that his campaign will be more willing to work with the progressive blogosphere than it was in the primary."

This has to be the craziest thing i have ever read.  He needs to try and work harder for you.  You need to stop attacking him.  The Blogosphere split up between Edwards and Hillary, Partially because some of you think you are Washington insiders, and the other half because when Joe Trippi says jump you ask how high. So you have attacked him on the most ridiculous claims, and guess what a lot of your readers didnt buy it.  The lesson for bloggers is when you spit out koolaid you loose credibility. 

So yeah if he wins, you are going to stop getting your feelings hurt because he said crisis once, and doesn't pander to you.


It's split .. (4.00 / 1)
between Edwards and Hillary?  Can I have what you are smoking?

[ Parent ]
imagine Obama in the general (4.00 / 1)
Given how far to the right he has gone in the Democratic primary, just imagine how he will position himself in the general election. If you think Democrats are being snubbed now you'll be missing the rebukes of Lieberman with Obama listing further right for general election audiences.

I doubt he will win but I am very curious how he would go about mending fences with the unions after branding them corrupting special interests. I would not be surprised if he continued running against them in an attempt to broaden his appeal further right.


unsubstantiated claims (4.00 / 2)
"Given how far to the right he has gone in the Democratic primary,"

What are you talking about? name one right wing issue he has? yes he said crisis once, ohh and he pointed out that AL Gore and Kerry lost... You know how right wing stating the obvious is.  Ohh yeah and how could i forget he pointed out that it is hypocritical of Edwards to go on rants about 527's and then use them to his advantage, and no that isn't an attack on unions its an attack on flip flopper Edwards.  I know all the crazy Edwards lovers think every thing democratic and Edwards are the same thing, they aren't.


[ Parent ]
"Once" and 527 Law (4.00 / 1)
Social Security is not a trivial issue.  Saying you'd do what Bush failed to do "once" and backing it up with a policy isn't some "gaffe."  By the way, wouldn't it have been nice if Obama--the anti-war candidate--could have voted against giving Bush a blank check on Iraq just once?

Oh, and referring to Edwards supporters as "crazy" is odd coming from someone who doesn't even think Obama's ran right on any issue (Again, dismissing a blatant example as just "once").  Hell, you're ignorance on 527s is something else: first, they are beyond his control so there is no "hypocrisy" (especially since he has repeatedly asked all 527s to stop); second, it is illegal for Edwards and 527s to coordinate with each other (i.e. Edwards telling a specific group to stop and they do is against the law); third, Obama himself has encouraged their use on his behalf in the GE.


[ Parent ]
*Your*--not "you're" (4.00 / 1)
Online spats always tend to involve some grammar war so let me just get ahead of that one.

[ Parent ]
I find it amusing (4.00 / 2)
that on the one hand, you acknowledge Obama "is clearly at least the second favorite in the progressive blogosphere", but on the other hand, you claim "if he wins, it will be in spite of the progressive blogosphere, rather than because of it".

Clearly, sometimes your use of the phrase "progressive blogosphere" refers to all participants therein. At other times, however, what you really mean by "progressive blogosphere" is you, Matt Stoller, Jane Hampshire, Markos, Atrios, Digby, Taylor Marsh, and Jermone Armstrong.


Edwards and Obama (0.00 / 0)
are clearly the favorites of the left blogosphere. Even if they didn't say it, Matt and Chris always supported Edwards first, Obama second. Markos endorsed Obama first, Edwards second. Matthew Yglesias endorsed Obama first, Edwards second (I think). Marsh and (maybe) Armstrong are the only ones who had Clinton in their top two.

Banned for posting five straight diaries.

[ Parent ]
Congratulations Chris (4.00 / 2)
You guys made in on CNN tonight, you fit  right in  to the MSM meme , about the angry bloggers who are ANGRY at Obama because he is appealing to independents. They showed Obama making an appeal and then the story about the "main stream bloggers"  being angry at Obamaas they called you all.
You did good!!!!! Congratulations on your accomplishment.
That should help our progressive causes!

... (4.00 / 1)
As much as I hate to agree, I agree. Progressive issues are extremely important, but we don't want to end up being the Dennis Kucinich of politics. Let's cool down a little, eh? We want more people to hop on the progressive train, the last thing we want is negative press that detracts from our mission.

[ Parent ]
If you people think progressive anger - (4.00 / 1)
as opposed to bland oposition or out and out appeasement - is the only thing that's holding back the movement, all I have to say is, Happy New Year, Senator Lieberman, Senator Reid.

[ Parent ]
I think the anger is warranted (0.00 / 0)
It is the last 2 days of  meltdowns that have been a disaster!

[ Parent ]
I can only speak for myself, but my frustration and (4.00 / 1)
yes, anger, comes from the polls indicating that Dems learned nothing from Karl Rove's handpicking of Kerry in 2004, and that tomorrow, a handful of people in Iowa are going to condemn us to another four years of Republican misrule.

[ Parent ]
Give me a break!! ... (0.00 / 0)
like CNN would do anything nice for the blogs .. anything to make their competition look bad

[ Parent ]
Reading Comprehension 101 (0.00 / 0)
No one cares if CNN does or doesn't do anything for the blogs.
But after yesterdays meltdowns it just played into their Anger meme. Another win for the progressives ...HUH.....NOT

[ Parent ]
If you want to worry .. (0.00 / 0)
about what CNN does .. go right ahead .. but we can't be worried about CNN .. we aren't going to win .. by depending on CNN to make us look good .. I can read .. and I know that you are afraid of CNN

[ Parent ]
MSB ???? (0.00 / 0)
They have arrived....

[ Parent ]
Wow this is some serious rage directed at each other. (0.00 / 0)
I can see the spittle flying.

All interesting points, but we're throwing knives-- at each other.

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