From the Concord Monitor website:
?? / 65% of 301 precincts reporting:
Clinton: 39%: 67,826 (+5,090, Clinton starting to move clear)
Obama 36%: 62,736
Edwards: 17%
Richardson: 5%
Kucinich: 2%
Update 15: MSNBC calls it for Clinton. What an all-time shocker. The momentum swings back in her direction, now. Nevada looms as a huge, huge battleground.
Update 14 This just in over email:
One of the only real college towns (a small one) to report so far has been Keene, which went 41-27 for Obama. Durham/Newmarket and Hanover haven't reported yet.
This is going to be very close.
Update 13: Starting to wonder if Obama can catch up here. The vote margin keeps increasing, and Clinton won the cities, 41%--39%.
Update 12: I'm going to start looking more at the vote margin than anything else. Also, in 2004, Dean scored 57,761 votes. Clinton and Obama are about to pass that number.
Update 11: I also wonder how much absentee voting there was. No only would it be unaffected by momentum, but it wouldn't be including in the exit poll. Clinton could very well win this...
Update 10: Apparently, no college towns have reported yet. That is good news for Obama. Check that: Keane is a college town and has reproted.
Update 9: I'm officially stunned. The eleven poll average, taken entirely post-Iowa, showed Obama ahead by 7.8%. Polling averages are rarely off by more than a net of 3%. This is looking like at least 6% net error across the average, and possibly more. Stunning. People will guess at the reasons for this for a while. My best guess is a sharp turn toward Clinton among older women when the media, and Edwards, criticized Clinton for showing some emotion. No matter how male the punditry might be, one forgets that women are a majority of the electorate at one's own peril...
Update 8: This is really bad news for Obama if he loses. Clinton now seems like she will be OK no matter what, because she beat expectations. "Comeback Clinton," will be one of the narratives, even if she loses. However, if she comes back all the way and wins, then Obama's momentum might not only be stopped, it could be reversed. Nevada now looms as a major battleground...
Update 7: More exit poll comparisons. The liberal vote is way up, from 47% to 57%. While this should have benefited Obama, he only leads Clinton 40-37% in that category. Women also turned out at high rates, up to 57% from 54%. Again, a good sign for Clinton.
Update 6: Comparing 2004 and 2008 New Hamsphire exit polls. Under 30 vote up from 14% to 17%, but over 65 vote also up from 11% to 14%. Self-identified Democrats increase from 48% to 54%. the former is a wash, the latter is good for Obama Clinton.
Update 5: The CNN exit poll projects to a very narrow Obama win, 39.4%--38.1%. That is within the margin of error for the exit poll, probably. There appears to be massive Democratic, female turnout. Clinton appears to have rallied women aged 40 and over.
Update 4: Apparently, the exit poll shows Obama ahead 39%-34%. It might be even closer than that. I have heard that Clinton did have Dean's New Hampshire field guru (can't remember her name), and Michael Whouley working in New Hampshire. That is a helluva field team.
Update 3: Clinton is certainly doing well so far, much better than expectations. Still, one would expect that the larger, urban precincts haven't reported yet, and that those precincts should favor Obama. Also, there is no way that Edwards beats Clinton now. CNN has officially projected him 3rd.
Update 2: On the Republican side, McCain has beeen declared the winner by every news outlet.
Update: CNN has slightly faster results, but doesn't have the exact number of precincts reporting. Turnout looks huge. |
