| Okay, that might be stretching it. Truman beating Dewey almost certainly beats it. But I can't remember ever being this stunned by an election result. Every indication was that it seemed headed toward a big Obama win.
You know, I got into politics to make the world a better place. But I also am not ashamed to admit it, I also love the game. Voters are independent cusses, and you just never know what they are going to do next, the rascals.
Here are some post-NH thoughts on the state of the race.
1. Each election has its own dynamics. I love fladem's historical data analysis, and I've used the averages she has developed in my analysis a lot. But her own chart here shows how wildly different the dynamics are in each race. A swing of 40 points in one race and 5 in another gives you a 22.5% average, but it certainly doesn't meant the 3rd election will have a 22.5% swing. Gary Hart's massive surge in 1984 came because so many Democrats in the country were looking for an alternative to Mondale, and his fade later was the result of his own mistakes over the course of the campaign. Other races had a different set of dynamics.
What NH showed is that, momentum and long-term trends aside, what happens in the course of a campaign really does matter. Voters are not sheep, and they are watching this campaign closely and making up their own minds. Hillary worked her ass off in NH, played to her strength- which is substance on the issues- showed her warmth and sincerity, and the voters were paying attention and liked that they saw.
2. Never, ever, ever count the Clintons out. As I discuss below, I still believe Obama is the most likely to win this race in the end, but the thing that always amazed me when I was working for the Clintons, and since then, is that they never give up, they are remarkably resourceful, they are tough as nails, and they are at their best when they are in the worst trouble. While I think the overall dynamic favors Obama, I would never bet real money against the Clintons.
3. The conventional wisdom now shifts back to the Clintons, but the dynamic in this race still favors Obama. Every campaign has one major question that is the biggest question for voters to answer. In the 2004 primary, it was who has the best chance of beating Bush, and primary voters decided, wrongly as it turned out, that it was Kerry. This year, that question is, who is most likely to deliver real change. I still think that over the course of a long campaign, Obama has a clear edge with voters on that question. And, by the way, that question is especially dominant with women voters, so Obama doesn't have to keep losing the women's vote to Hillary.
4. Both of these campaigns still have to overcome big flaws. You have to give both of these campaigns credit for impressive victories, and for coming from behind when everyone was writing them off. But they are both handicapped by big flaws.
Mark Penn has never understood what this race was about, and has left the Clinton campaign with an experience vs. change frame which is fundamentally wrong for the 2008 election. Clinton should not let herself be lulled by this upset victory into thinking that all is well in Hillaryland. They still need to rebuild their message if they want to win over the long haul.
Obama's message about change has become more mono-syllable than Edwards' pure populism. He has to show he has the grit and substance to actually deliver real change, not just preach about it. Part of the reason he kept things on such an inspirational level in the NH primary was caution: he wants to avoid making mistakes. But caution is a killer for a change message. He needs to retool as well.
5. Edwards could become the kingmaker. Edwards is dead as a Presidential prospect for 2008, but if this becomes a long, drawn out, fairly evenly-divided fight, and Edwards stays in and keeps drawing around 20% everywhere he goes, he could be the guy who decides the nominee. I could easily see this playing out where Obama wins a bunch of states and Clinton wins a bunch, and they both end up with about 40% of the delegates, and Edwards keeps playing to the end of the primary process and then delivers his 20% to one of them. Could make things interesting right up to convention day. |
