The Magic Number: 1,600

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 19:38


The "magic number," aka, half of the 4,049 national delegates for the Democratic nomination, is set at 2,025. However, unless I am mistaken, primaries and caucuses will only determine 3,199 delegates to the convention.

Given this, I think a different "magic number" for the nomination should be used: 1,600. That number is 50% + 1 of the delegates that will be determined by primaries and caucuses across the nation and overseas. As soon as a candidate receives 1,600 pledged delegates from states other than Florida and Michigan, then that candidate should be declared the nominee. At that point, s/he should be given the right to seat the Florida and Michigan delegation she or he wishes, and the Super Delegates should fall in behind him or her, as well.

1,600 seems like a good benchmark to be used, not to mention a nice round number. Right now, the count stands at Obama 63, Clinton 48, Edwards 26. On Super Tuesday, 1,688 pledged delegates will be up for grabs. After Super Tuesday, there will be another 1,145 pledged delegates. So, the question is, how close does Obama have to be after Super Tuesday in order to keep going? Certainly, if Obama is ahead on his own, or if Edwards and Obama combined are ahead of Clinton. Other than that, with only 1,374 pledged delegates left, I think a gap of 100 would be manageable, but a gap of 200 or more would not be. Given the current polling situation on Super Tuesday, that is going to be a tall order for Obama, but certainly tonight  should give his supporters hope.
Chris Bowers :: The Magic Number: 1,600

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The Magic Number: 1,600 | 4 comments
If only 'should' mattered . . . . (0.00 / 0)
My guess is that the super-delegates will stand for the party establishment (ie Clinton) in overwhelming numbers.

But wouldn't it be nice if the Democratic party was sactually run by people who believed in democracy?

The everyday people of the whole earth are ready to run the sphere in peace.

The Magic Number: 1,600 | 4 comments
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