Oh how sweet it is... (4.00 / 1)

...to quote Jackie Gleason.

Us NYers could really use a break from the constant legislative impasse we face. Unfortunately, the Speaker of the Democratic controlled Assembly, Sheldon Silver, is also part of the problem. Same old story of the establishment vs reformers. Similarly unfortunate is the political capital Spitzer squandered soon after he came into office.

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by: hellenica @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 00:23:02 AM CST

Spitzer could turn things around with a Dem controlled Senate (0.00 / 0)

And heh, I think after getting rid of Bruno, Silver is #2 on the hit list of most NY Dems.

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by: othertim @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 00:40:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

you got that right (0.00 / 0)

O Shelly Silver... your days of manipulating the legislature for your own agenda are numbered...

Though that really requires a revolt of rank and file Democratic Assemblymen. Speaking of which... any NYers know who an alternative Speaker might be?

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by: hellenica @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:49:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

There was an attempted revolt in 2000 (0.00 / 0)

Mostly upstates who wanted more money for their part of the state. The leader of the revolt, Michael Brabmanm was stripped of his leadership position as a result. Silver keeps the caucus happy by dishing out the pork and keeping significant power within the Assembly. He doesn't cede much at all. He's not going down anytime soon, at least until we get some new blood in the assembly. But thats unlikely to happen either.

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by: pierredude @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:12:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Is there a special reason for this? (0.00 / 0)

Why not a Democrat? Is this a general throw the republicans out? Will this swing be matched anywhere? Its a big swing 100 years and almost 2 to 1 registration.

Should I say wow nationally or locally?

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

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by: HousesofProgress @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 00:27:14 AM CST

Woo hoo! (4.00 / 1)

I can't stress enough to non New Yorkers how big this is. Incumbents just don't lose in the NY Legislature. A seat flipping is massive. Even Spitzer getting elected with 69% of the vote, I think the Democrats picked up a grand total of 4 seats in the Assembly and Senate combined.

The GOP has controlled the Senate for half a freakin' century.  None of them have ever been in the minority party. None of them are any good (Orange County has terrible representation, yet we send them back every 2 years. Even when we finally got rid of Sue Kelly in 2006.) It's in reach for the Democrats, and there might be enough of a push this November to get Joseph Bruno out of power and for there to be no more Albany gridlock.

And if that happens, you're going to see wholesale retirements and party switching. It's only going to get better.

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by: othertim @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 00:37:10 AM CST

a couple questions (0.00 / 0)

What are the chances we take the senate this year? And if that happens, when would would redistricting be possible to make the map more favorable?

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by: Jack McMillin @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:39:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Why a republican Senate at all? (0.00 / 0)

Isn't New York overwhelmingly Democratic? How do the republicans manage to hold on to the Senate in this blue state? Some special districting involved that ensures an artificial majority?

Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested, we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back, nor did we falter

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by: Gray @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:54:37 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Why? (0.00 / 0)

I lived in NY state for about ten years from the mid 80s through the mid 90s.  During that time the area I was living in made a big switch towards the Democrats going Dem at the Congress and later the County Executive level.  But the stae senate seats remained set in concrete (changing over finally just two years ago).  It is hard to overestimate the importance of this one.  Anyway, here'sy explanations.

Power.  The "three men in a room" syndrome makes the leader of the state senate (or Asssembly with a Republican governor) the second most powerful man in the state.  Individual state senators are non existent.

Power leads to pork.  Massive pork. Sometines it is buildings but often it is a series of government contracts or gifts to political or semi political "civic" groups or contractors.  Everybody that feeds at the trough feeds into the system.

Gerrymanders, of course.

As Westchester and Long Island have swung to become more blue, holding on to the Senate becomes tougher for Republicans who essentially depend on working class or middle class votes in enclaves within a Democratic sea.

Spitzer is the first governor who really seems to challenge the power of this permanent disfunction rather than working with it by buying off the opposition leader.  Bruno, IIRC, was actually installed by Pataki who wanted a more compliant senate leader in a political coup.  He only developed teeth when the Democrats took the Governor's job.

This one is huge because it came out of the blue.  The obvious challenge to a Sephin Maltese or a few other vulnerables who are dug in was seriously outflanked.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:43:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Marriage equality (0.00 / 0)

Bruno refused to bring up marriage equality for a vote last year after the Assmbly passed it. My friends lobbying said they doubt we have enough for a majority in the Senate yet, but just a vote would be a big step forward.

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by: Adam Bink @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:20:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I fail to see the "upset" (0.00 / 0)

Born and raised in Ogdensburg, New York, in state senate district 48 -- and still a part-time resident there -- I have to agree with robert.harding over at The Albany Project when he says this was not an upset. Darrell Aubertine is a well-known, wildly popular assemblyman and Will Barclay is a weasle of a man with a locally famous father who ran negative right out of the gate. I won't say that this was Aubertine's race to lose, but I thought he started with the advantage, despite the district's overwhelming Republican tilt. The Barclay campaign's increasingly desperate attacks on Aubertine thoughout the race show just how pathetic a candidate they were running.

I like Aubertine a lot. He has been a fantastic representative for the North Country in Albany -- the only time he ever disappointed me was his vote against full marriage equality -- and he will be equally stellar in the Senate.

As for what this means for New York, I think we may see a number of aging State Senate Republicans retire before the fall election. If that happens, I cannot fathom a scenario in which Joe Bruno keeps this precious majority. And, as Matt said, that is the last roadblock to real progressive governance in New York.

Less likely, but still possible, is that this may scare U.S. Rep. John McHugh into retirement. I've heard rumors back home that he is not enjoying the minority. Seeing a Republican lose a state senate seat that covers much of his own congressional district may be enough to push him over the edge. Unfortunately, we have only got a turkey of a candidate running in the NY-23. With Aubertine now settling into the state senate -- and, I would guess, too invested in his own dairy farm to ever actually leave New York for Washington -- I can't think of any prominent Democrats to challenge McHugh. Suggestions?

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by: Zephyr @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:09:39 AM CST