Latest results before bed:
March 4th Primary and Caucus Results
| State |
Reporting |
O % |
C % |
Delegates |
Obama Del |
Clinton Del |
| Ohio |
100% |
44% |
54% |
141 |
65 |
76 |
| Rhode Island |
99% |
40% |
58% |
21 |
8 |
13 |
| Texas Primary |
99% |
48% |
51% |
126 |
61 |
65 |
| Texas Caucus |
36% |
52% |
48% |
67 |
0 |
0 |
| Vermont |
99% |
59% |
39% |
15 |
9 |
6 |
| Total |
NA |
NA |
NA |
370 |
143 |
160 |
You can follow the Texas caucus here. Here are some thoughts on the results:
Obama still the favorite
Looks like Clinton will net about 10-15 delegates tonight, along with about 250,000 popular votes. Overall, Obama will now lead by about 600,000 votes, and 145-150 pledged delegates. Toss in superdelegates, and Obama's lead cut to about 100-110 delegates. Add in Florida, and Obama leads by about 300,000 votes, and about 65-70 delegates. Throw in a Michigan delegate with zero votes for Obama, and Clinton takes an infinitesimal lead in both counts.
This is why Obama is still the favorite. In order to even force a virtual tie, Clinton needs three contingencies to break her way. Obama, by contrast, will probably wipe out Clinton's March 4th delegate gains in Wyoming (March 8th) and Mississippi (March 11th), leaving the pledged delegate margin heading into Pennsylvania identical to the margin before yesterday's contests. However, overall March will still be a victory for Obama, as he continues to cut into Clinton's superdelegate lead. Rumors are that many more are on the way, too. Overall, despite her wins tonight, at the end of March, Clinton will probably be further behind in delegates than at the start of the month.
Gonna Get Even Nastier
I think the most telling rhetorical moment of the night was when, during Clinton's speech, her supporters started chanting "Yes, She Will," or something to that effect. Whatever it was, it was directly aimed not just as Barack Obama, but at Barack Obama supporters. I can't remember something like that ever happening before. Were they mainly cheering for Clinton, or antagonizing Obama supporters? Hard to tell. You could feel their disgust with Obama supporters, which certainly is a sign that Clinton supporters don't care how nasty her campaign might get against Obama. And, if what I see in the blogosphere is any indication, for many Obama supporters the feeling is more than mutual. If Obama decided to retaliate in kind, I doubt his supporters will mind. This could get really, really ugly.
Matchups Against McCain Will Suffer
Expect Clinton to start closing the general election performance gap on Obama, but not necessarily gain on McCain. I have long argued that whoever has the monentum in the primary campaign will always perform better in the general election. For the next several weeks, neither Clinton nor Obama will have momentum in the primary campaign, but McCain probably will. As our campaign gets nastier and remains somewhat inconclusive, there is a good chance McCain will gain on both Clinton and Obama.
Not About Winning States Anymore
From this point on, winning or losing states has virtually nothing to do with the campaign anymore. Winning Pennsylvania might have an impact on North Carolina and Indiana. Also, 213 delegates will be determined by the result of the remaining statewide votes. Otherwise, states are now a sideshow to the many other forms of delegates available: district-level delegates, superdelegates, the credentials committee, Puerto Rico, and even Edwards delegates. The outcome of the popular vote is also important as it could play a huge role in how many superdelegates make up their minds, and in whether or not the nation as a whole views the nominee as legitimate.
Non-Dismissive Talking Points
What the Obama campaign should say about the extended campagin:
"Last night, Senator Clinton narrowly won the popular vote and the delegate count. However, overall we still have several hundred thousand more votes than Senator Clinton, and we still have more than 100 delegates than Senator Clinton. We are playing by the delegate rules everyone agreed upon before the voting began, and according to those rules, we are still the heavy favorite. We believe superdelegates should respect the popular vote, and that they should also work to avoid a brokered convention so we can start taking on John McCain. We will continue to fight for every vote and every delegate, and not pick and choose which ones matter and which ones don't."
What the Clinton campaign should say about superdelegates and such:
"Sure, superdelegates are not based on the popular vote, but neither are caucus delegates. Anyway, Senator Obama and I have virtually identical popular vote totals, and in a campaign this close, it is about who has the delegates. We will fight for delegates in primaries. We will fight for the credential committee to seat our delegates in Michigan and Florida. We will fight for superdelegates. We will fight for uncommitted delegates. We will not pick and choose and say which ones matter and which ones don't. And we believe that, in the end, we will have a majority at the convention."
Notice how none of these talking points required dismissing anyone as unimportant, dissing the rules, or ignoring the popular vote? That is what both campaigns need to aim for right now.
Pennsylvania Goes Mad With Power
Wow--Pennsylvania is going to matter. In fact, with a seven-week build-up to Pennsylvania, it might end up getting more attention that even Iowa or New Hampshire. And I live here. And I'm a precinct captain here. And I'm on the state committee here. Wow. I think it is time for all of this power to go to my head. If nothing else, I'll have a first-hand look at the climax of the most epic Democratic nomination contest in a century. Obama and Clinton both meet with the 69 Philadelphia ward leaders on Friday. Really, it is more important than a debate. My ward endorsement meeting is on March 20th. Expect a lot of on the ground coverage!
***
So, there it is: yet another big twist in this campaign, resulting in a shockingly close result for this late stage of a nomination campaign. I wish it had ended last night, but democracy is a funny thing. I'll have updated delegate counts and popular vote totals when I wake up. |
