Right now, Democratic Convention Watch prominently displays the superdelegate endorsement totals compiled by four major sources. The AP shows Clinton ahead 250-220, CBS shows Clinton ahead 249-217, CNN gives Clinton an advantage of 243-212, and DCW itself shows Clinton ahead 246-216. These margins are virtually identical, and all show Clinton ahead by between 30 and 32 superdelegate endorsements. However, a closer look at the numbers strongly suggests that Clinton's superdelegate advantage is actually much smaller, and will probably be erased entirely before Pennsylvania.
Consider the following:
- Add-on superdelegates: Democratic Convention Watch currently shows Obama ahead 2-0 among add-on superdelegates. At this point, very few add-on superdelegates have been chosen, and the complete schedule for when the rest of the 76 add-ons will be selected can be found here. Looking over the number of add-on superdelegates from states that have already held primaries or caucuses, and keeping in mind that add-on superdelegates are reviewed by each campaign before state party committees or state pledged delegate committees vote on these delegates, it seems that Obama will lead Clinton 40-24 among these delegates. (For this calculation, I am projecting a Clinton add-on victory in New Hampshire, a split in Missouri, and an Obama victory in Nevada and Texas). This means that Obama will actually close the superdelegate gap on Clinton by another 14 delegates once all of the add-ons are chosen, reducing Clinton's advantage from 30-32 down to 16-18 in favor of Clinton.
- "Pelosi Club" superdelegates: Democratic Convention Watch also posts a list of seven superdelegates who have publicly stated they will endorse the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates. They call this group the "Pelosi Club," since Nancy Pelosi first made this pledge. At this point, since Obama only needs 37.4% of the remaining pledged delegates to win pledged delegates, he is a lock to be that candidate. As such, the four uncommitted superdelegates and one Clinton endorsing superdelegate in this "club" are all effectively Obama superdelegates. This adds five superdelegates to Obama's total, and removes one from Clinton, allowing Obama to close the 16-18 delegate gap down to 10-12.
- Vacant superdelegate spots: There are currently at least six vacant superdelegate slots that will be filled before the convention. Four of those are vacant DNC spots, and two of them are in heavily Democratic congressional districts where special elections will be held between now and the convention. Of the DNC slots, one is from Illinois, and another is an at-large spot that I have learned is currently slated to go to an African-American woman from SEIU. Given that sate and that union, both of those supers can be marked down for Obama. Further, one of the congressional seats to be filled before the convention will go to Donna Edwards, who has also endorsed Obama. Taken together, this amounts to three more superdelegates for Obama, reducing Clinton's advantage from 10-12 down to 7-9.
- Private Obama Endorsers: In my limited discussions with uncommitted superdelegates, I have found two Obama supporters who are keeping their endorsements private for the time being, and two others who will be endorsing Obama before North Carolina. That is another four superdelegates for Obama, reducing Clinton's advantage from 7-9 down to only 3-5.
This analysis strongly suggests that Clinton's superdelegate advantage is actually down to the low single digits at this point, and quite possibly does not exist at all given that I only know about ten uncommitted superdelegates and there are probably a lot more private Obama endorses out there. Even if Clinton currently holds a lead of 5 among superdelegates, the current rate of superdelegate endorsements will result in her advantage disappearing entirely before the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. Even after Ohio and Texas, Obama is picking up about four superdelegates every week, while Clinton is only picking up about one and a half. That is enough to give Obama the lead among superdelegates in three more weeks.
The reason this is important is because, without Clinton's superdelegate advantage, Obama leads by 53 delegates even with Florida included, even with Michigan included, and even with Obama receiving zero delegates from Michigan. Clinton's advantage among superdelegates is vaguely keeping her campaign afloat at this point since it makes the delegate count appear close, and since the campaign has long argued it can flip enough superdelegates in order to secure the nomination. However, remove the superdelegate advantage, and then Obama take the nomination no matter what delegate count is used, and no matter what scenario campaigns dream up. When Obama takes the lead among superdelegates, Clinton's options shrink to zero. And, unless the analysis I present here is flawed, it appears that Obama is imminently poised to take the superdelegate lead even before Pennsylvania. As long as Obama can win Indiana, the end of the nomination campaign is nigh. |
