The new numbers from the Washington Post/ABC Poll are remarkable. They show an electorate that hates Republicans, has pretty much made up its mind, is comfortable with Obama and his message, and is paying attention. Let's look at some of the core macro-trends.
Voters Like Democrats, Hate Republicans: It can't be stated enough. The Republican brand is in the toilet, and the public wants to put Democrats in charge. We've seen several special elections in Republican territory bear this out, and we may see another one tonight. Here's the specific question:
Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?
Democrats are up 53-32, roughly similar to the proportion in November, 2006.
Voters Know McCain is a Republican: McCain is down by seven points to Barack Obama, losing ground since January. While it's not as good as the generic ballot, Democratic Presidential candidates tend to lose ground versus the generic ballot. Here's the specific question:
If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (John McCain, the Republican) and (Barack Obama, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?
Obama is up 51-44 over McCain, which is up from 47-45 in January.
Obama has gained 5 points during this primary process. What explains this? Perhaps the change message is becoming more compelling.
Change Gaining Strength: Obama's candidacy is clearly organized around change, which is strongly gaining ground among the electorate. Obama outpolls McCain as the candidate of change by thirty points. That is not going to be made up by the election.
Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?
47-43 'experience' wins over 'new ideas', but that is up 5 points from July, 2007.
Change is gaining strength by exactly the same proportion that Obama is gaining strength.
The More People Learn About McCain the More They Dislike Him: It's extremely difficult to argue that McCain has received anything but the most laudatory media coverage, and Obama has been savaged, particularly over the last few weeks. Of course, Clinton has been treated far worse than either of them, which leads us to this.
Regardless of who you may support, would you say the more you hear about [CANDIDATE] the (more you like {him/her}), the more you hear about {him/her} the (less you like {him/her}), or has your opinion about {him/her} not changed lately one way or the other?
Candidate
More you
Less you
Opinion not changed
Obama
26
24
49
Clinton
15
23
61
McCain
14
20
64
I'm not convinced this kind of evidence is reliable for anything except initial impressions of the candidate filtered through the media universe. Still, it's interesting that McCain's ridiculously favorable press coverage is losing out to negatives people encounter when they learn about him, whether through friends or the rumor mill or the internet or Democratic 527s and the DNC. Clinton is also disliked, while Obama is not, which leads me to believe that voters are interested in, well, change.
Voters Are Paying Attention: The 2000 and 2004 elections were both extremely close. The 21 point bump in increased attention from 2000 has been supplemented by a further 9 point bump from 2004, which means that 3 out of 10 Americans who were not paying attention to the election in 2000 are paying attention today, and 1 out of 10 Americans who were not paying attention to the election at this point in 2004 are paying attention today. The 2000 election was basically even, and the 2004 election was decided by a few points. Along with increased activism, donors, primary voting, and special election turnout, the energy and interest is on the Democratic side.
How closely are you following the presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
Date
NET
Very
Somewhat
NET
Not Too
Not At All
5/11/08
83
39
44
17
13
5
5/23/04
74
33
41
26
17
9
4/2/00
53
17
36
47
24
23
Americans Are Worried About Age, Not Race/Gender: It's actually quite reasonable to worry about McCain's age. The Presidency is a tough job, and a 72 year cancer survivor just won't be able to do it.
If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about (ITEM), is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable?
Type
Comfortable
Uncomfortable
A Woman President
84
16
An African-American President
88
12
A new 72 year old President
60
39
The trend is actually better than these numbers suggest, with the number of people becoming 'entirely' comfortable with an African-American President going from 56 to 66 percent within the last few months.
So what we're seeing is that voters hate Republicans and like Democrats, prefer Obama to McCain, prefer change over experience, dislike McCain the more they learn about him, are paying attention, and are comfortable with an African-American President but not a 72 year old President.
With Democrats competitive in R+10 House seats and challenging Republicans in states like Alaska and Texas, we could see 20-40 pickups in the House and 6-10 Senate pickups, as well as the White House.
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