Obama Blows Out the Pundits with a 50M+ Quarter

by: Matt Stoller

Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:37


Good news for Democrats; it seems the small dollar donor crowd is intensely focused on winning back the Presidency.  Even with the organizing around FISA, Obama took in a remarkable money haul from small dollar and large dollar donors.  I'd like to see the breakdown of large to small, but my guess is that most of the large dollar donations went to the DNC, which took in $22M and can legally accept donations about ten times the size of a Federal campaign.  

It's hard to tell exactly what is going on without more data, but it seems clear that there was no concerted organized effort to withhold money from Obama.  That's a very good thing, as he is far more preferable than McCain, which is what we have always been arguing.  

I don't like the arguments from various pundits that such and such a move will hurt Obama's electoral chances.  I don't know what will help and hurt his chances, I don't have the polling data, the time, or the responsibility to figure that out.  Moreover, there are lots of ways to win the Presidency.  Obama has chosen to do it by steamrolling over the civil liberties crowd, giving himself a bad few weeks of press, while also calling himself a progressive several times.  That has more governance implications than electoral implications, or at least that's what it seems.

At any rate, the whining from DC pundits about how the left was undermining Obama's chances at winning was absolutely wrong.  His small dollar donor army wants him in that White House, and they are going to pay to put him there.  While it's often impossible for consultants in DC to keep multiple thoughts in their head, it is possible for most of us normal bluggers and blug readers to get that we don't like his vote on FISA but we want him to win the White House desperately anyway.
Matt Stoller :: Obama Blows Out the Pundits with a 50M+ Quarter

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Obama Blows Out the Pundits with a 50M+ Quarter | 29 comments
June Only (0.00 / 0)
Matt, I assume you mean month not quarter.  $50M was the haul for June.
Question (0.00 / 0)
Did you contribute since the FISA vote Matt?
Since you are including all the critical bluggers in the donor category, it would be nice for you to disclose.
My disclosure, I gave twice since the FISA vote, that I thought was terrible.
Just asking.........
I prefer giving to the DNC and to (0.00 / 0)
my state and local parties and candidates.  It's important for me to make a statement on FISA, and there's no better way to do it than with my checkbook.
[ Parent ]
Guilt vs Gelt (0.00 / 0)
While it's often impossible for consultants in DC to keep multiple thoughts in their head, it is possible for most of us normal bluggers and blug readers to get that we don't like his vote on FISA but we want him to win the White House desperately anyway.

Matt, does one detect a tittle of guilt.  I respect people for that that.

[ Parent ]
$25 of that haul was mine (4.00 / 2)
we have to get Obama in there.  and after he's elected I'll join the Obama accountability project to push for the most progressive policies possible.  Even FDR didn't really run as a progressive but the push from progressives was so strong that it helped shape and IMPROVE his policies.  And all of America benefitted.  I'll also work locally to bullwork ourselves for the 2010 elections.  I worked door to door in 1994, I was at a campaign office on election night, I did tell seniors that Democrats lost the house and Senate and I watched thier face turn pale. We must win as many seats as possible in 2008 as a bullwork against the resistance to change that will occur in 2010.  
Good Point. (4.00 / 1)
I'm not in a position to agree or otherwise with your evaluation of FDRs campaign, but regardless, I think your encouragement for a continuing progressive push is important.
[ Parent ]
Average donation was $68 (4.00 / 2)
I made this point in the other thread, but if the average donation was $68, and presumably there were many $2300 donations from Hillary suporters and others jumping on the bandwagon, he's got a whole lot of small donors.  It takes hundreds of small donors to dilute the controbutions of every $2300 donor to get the average that low.  And if everyone who has given to him this year givces an equal amount towards the general, he'd have plenty of cash.

They have opened 6 offices in Montana.  They have lots of offices in Virginia, where Tom Perriello in VA-05 and Judy Feder in VA-10 are waging strong campaigns and will give us 2 more seats.  NC too.  

And McCain is seen as the last defense for the GOP, now that they have given up on regaining the House and Senate.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

Don't forget Andrea Miller in VA-04! (0.00 / 0)
She's the upset of the cycle, and a committed activist for Medicare for All...

Join the California Nurses Association and National Nurses Organizing Committee in the fight for guaranteed healthcare on the single-payer model at www.GuaranteedHealthcare.org/blog
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there was something about that on Kos too. (4.00 / 2)

The stunning tidbit from June's totals is that the average donation has decreased, from around $100 in February to $68 in June.  In other words, while the average amount donated has decreased, the number of donations has increased.  A lot.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

[ Parent ]
Pundit Service Announcement (4.00 / 4)
This is an OpenLeft diary posted shortly after the WSJ lowballed Obama's June haul:

Obama's Fundraising Problems: Turning to Rich People (+)
by: Matt Stoller
Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 12:02

Please consider voting for this story on Reddit.

I'll have more on why Obama is having serious fundraising problems, but it's worth noting that the campaign's strategy to counter his woes is to turn to extremely rich people for $28,500 per person events.

There are other tools he could use to drive up small dollar donations again.  He could come back from Iraq and announce, boldly, that he wants no residual troops in the country.  That would be a statement of principle.  

But for now, it's the superrich.

Matt added a "never mind" comment after the Obama campaign announced the WSJ was suffering from Murdoch-itis. But there's a lesson here: sometimes it's better to withhold judgment until all the facts are in.

BINGO (0.00 / 0)
spot on.

[ Parent ]
If only there were also some sort of (4.00 / 2)
internet-based log--a 'web log,' so to speak--on which people could appropriately jot down thoughts on the fly ...
[ Parent ]
Todays menu is mental junk food (0.00 / 0)
For lunch today the clueless self-important media chatterers serve up

Pundit Parfait, Finely shredded journalistic standards poufed up with a hefty shot of hot gas, with a side of

Pundit Pudding, Gelatinous reduction of congealed conscience, and topped with

Pundit Garnish, a salad of chip-on-shoulder and distilled envy.

Not just the DC gasbags (4.00 / 5)
It was the crie de guerre of an annoyingly large number of lefty bloggers at DailyKos last week (whom I assume were coordinating this nonsense offline since their talking points were amazingly in sync), who insisted that any criticism of Obama or call (a la Kos) to temporarily halt donations over FISA would hand the election to McCain.

Um, no, it won't.

The liberal soul shall be made fat. He who waters shall be watered also himself. (Proverbs 11:25)

Yes, I recall several thousands of blog readers bemoaning the doom of Obama (0.00 / 0)
You know, I'm all for hitting the MSM and "DC pundits" etc when they are wrong. But this simple frame of "old establishment is wrong, blogs are right" has become so tiring. Its not just the arrogance and that it is flat out wrong to hold this overly simplified dichotomy, worse it causes us to overlook the story lines and facts involved and the community to be self critical in exchange for a dumbed down frame that sells well to the blog rabble but does nothing to enlighten.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
welcome to the world (3.20 / 5)
of people who have been annoyed by the large number of amazingly-in-sync lefty Obama supporters at DKos for the last five months.  :-)

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
[ Parent ]
In sync, yes (4.00 / 2)
lefty, not so much.
[ Parent ]
I'm reading a great book on the origins of the neocons right now (4.00 / 1)
(They Knew They Were Right by Jacob Heilbrunn), and it's uncanny how some of these true believer types resemble the neocons in their youthful days, when they were convinced that they say the "true truth" and no one could convince them otherwise, and woe to anyone who tried. While I'm guessing that most of these Obama cultists are left-leaning in most of their beliefs, these beliefs don't appear to be very deep or well-grounded in a substantive understanding of the issues.

From the idiotic and ignorant responses and comments I got over FISA, where many of them displayed how little they understand or respect the constitution or what FISA is really all about, I got the impression that most of them were "turned on" during an Obama rally and don't really have a deep grasp of the issues involved here. I welcome their vote, but they're just muddying the waters and creating a mess on our side with needless pie fights over issues that they simply do not understand. And who knows where they'll be in 5-10 years, once Obama disappoints them, and they advance in their lives and careers and do they inevitable slide towards the center.

I'd actually rather have a serious discussion with a thoughtful and honest conservative (what few that are left these days) than with these shallow screeching binary-"thinking" types and their idiotic and insulting loyalty tests over how much one has donated to the cause and how many new voters one has registered. That's not my "left". Beyond GOTV and grass-roots fundraising (which are of course important), they are not helping their candidate by kicking up a cultist froth around him. And I wonder if they realize that the "new and improved" FISA law allows the RNC to essentially listen to their email and phone conversations and use information gleaned to disrupt their campaign activities.

Being clueless is not how you win.

The liberal soul shall be made fat. He who waters shall be watered also himself. (Proverbs 11:25)

[ Parent ]
Father Knows Best Democrats (0.00 / 0)
Very authoritarian in attitude.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog
[ Parent ]
intriguing speculation by Jerome (4.00 / 3)
here:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008...

Notice that just $2M was raised for the GE by Obama, they certainly could have raised a ton more money there if they had wanted, for the GE, at least $20-30M, and combined with the $74M that was raised between Obama and DNC, over $100M.

So, either the Obama camp isn't as committed to self-funding for the GE, and might still go the route of taking the $84M in public financing (unlikely); or they are holding off their donors to give for the GE later (there are accounts of projecting a $100M month in Sept); or the Obama camp will use July and August to raise big numbers for the GE, as the decision to opt-out was made on June 19th, late in the month for fundraising plans. It could be either of these last two it seems.

A $100 million month reported at the height of the fall craziness would certainly damage Republican morale and help drive media coverage of an "enthusiasm gap" between McCain and Obama.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

If he doesn't take public funding (0.00 / 0)
He can roll over any money from the primary into the general.  he doesn't have to spend it all pre-convention like Kerry did.  The only relevant constraint is that people can give only $4600 total, but that is way above his average donors anyway.  He's sitting pretty.  Besides, he may have banked GE donations from early supporters last year and early this year.  Hillary used GE donations to puff up her totals, but Obama's people have never disclosed how much they have for the GE, IIRC.  Just that $2M of June's was for the GE.  In any event, he can certainly roll over what he doesn't use by the convention, plus what he raises after it.  They aren't thinking about using public money.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Didn't someone post here .. (0.00 / 0)
at OpenLeft .. that it took like 45 days for Obama's campaign to cash his/her check? .. I wonder if they are holding money and playing the expectations game with the media .. so they can shoot holes through nonsense like the WSJ's
[ Parent ]
I Have A Theory (4.00 / 1)
That Obama leaked low numbers to change the dialogue.  With all the newspapers claiming he would raise $100,000 a month, and further ignoring the FACT that the other team had so much more money, Obama was in a no-win situation.  Anything less than gargantuan numbers would have been seen as buyer remorse and given McCain a bump.

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net



Matt Stoller: Obama having "serious fundraising problems" (4.00 / 5)
At any rate, the whining from DC pundits...

Don't you think you should have included at least a little mea culpa in this post given your July 11 baseless assertion that Obama was having "serious fund raising problems".

I was surprised by that earlier post given that no data had been released from the Obama campaign.

/Don

The Ward Report

Nah it is easier to point the finger (0.00 / 0)
at the MSM. Matt shot from the hip. He was wrong, but he is pointing at someone else. He of all people should know the "internets" have long memories.
[ Parent ]
I was quoting (0.00 / 0)
data from the Wall Street Journal, which as it turns out was wrong.  I corrected the post after they corrected it.
[ Parent ]
"Good news for Democrats?" (4.00 / 2)

 Matt, you trying to get your Broder Club Card revoked? Nothing is good news for Democrats, ever.

 The correct spin is "Obama raised $50 million in June, and this raises serious questions about...well, we'll think of something."

 Seriously, it's heartening to see that much of Obama's base doesn't equate support of Obama with unquestioning blind worship of him. That's where we most differ from Republicans...

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

The lower donor rate (0.00 / 0)
The lower donor rate is probably a result of fisa (eg markos not sending his 2300 check) as the blogosphere is much higher income than average.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com
Not that much (0.00 / 0)
The blogosphere is comparatively well off, but I don't think a majority of its members can afford to splash out on $2300 cheques. That's either going beyond well off and into rich or it's the only donation someone will make, which doesn't seem like the blogosphere either.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog
[ Parent ]
Obama Blows Out the Pundits with a 50M+ Quarter | 29 comments
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