The SUSA Virginia poll (4.00 / 1)

said that Obama and McCain were tied 48-48 in the Shenandoah Valley. If that's accurate, I think West Virginia is probably a tossup right now.

But we shouldn't get complacent. A month is a long time, and there are still two more debates.

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by: NR @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:23:20 PM CDT

What's Obama's "realistic" max? (0.00 / 0)

What are the next states to potentially fall?  We have IN, WV... then what?  Anything?  If Obama sweeps all of these, what else is put into contention?  GA and MT again?  North Dakota and South Carolina, maybe even Arizona?

I'm just trying to gauge what the absolute maximum I think is possible for Obama to attain.  I'm thinking it's probably just under 400 EVs.

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:25:45 PM CDT

GA (4.00 / 1)

everybody laughed when they targeted it.

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by: tremayne @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:30:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I get 391 max (0.00 / 0)

Including WV, GA and Omaha district of NE, but not MT or ND.

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by: themostprogressivecorporatelawyerofalltime @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:41:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hell, if you're really aiming for max (0.00 / 0)

go ahead and throw in MT (but not ND). MT could happen. It's a long shot but it could happen.

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by: Matt H @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:27:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

399 (0.00 / 0)

That's what I get when I give the above states plus IN, MT, Omaha, WV, and GA. To pass 400 you would need all of those plus either MS, AR, or ND, and I don't think we've seen evidence that either of those are terribly likely ... we'd need another fundamental shift in the electorate of 2 or 3 percent.

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by: nbeaudrot @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:27:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

best possible (0.00 / 0)

obama 338-200. mccain gets 200 at very least.  

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by: TA13 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 23:35:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How do you figure? (0.00 / 0)

Right now Obama is above that... so it's at least a realistic possibility.

Will it definitely be as good as this?  No... but we've seen that it's at least possible.

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by: leshrac55 @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 00:02:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I consider it a tie, unless Obama is up 3 (0.00 / 0)

Obama stills wins of course, since he wins with states that are currently 8+ ahead in the polls, are over 270 electoral votes.

But 364? - yes, this is NICE.  

Even RCP shows 364 - that's gotta be good!

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by: JC @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:39:12 PM CDT

Realistic max = 391 EV (0.00 / 0)

The Palin picks seems to have killed his chances in MT, ND, and AK, which sucks. Starting from Kerry's 252, I give him the following for 391:

* Florida (27 EVs)
* Ohio (20 EVs)
* North Carolina (15 EVs)
* Georgia (15 EVs)
* Virginia (13 EVs)
* Missouri (11 EVs)
* Indiana (11 EVs)
* Colorado (9 EVs)
* Iowa (7 EVs)
* Nevada (5 EVs)
* New Mexico (5 EVs)
* NE-02 (1 EV)

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by: PsiFighter37 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:40:15 PM CDT

oops (0.00 / 0)

sorry, didn't see this, I posted the same above!

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by: themostprogressivecorporatelawyerofalltime @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:42:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No WV? (0.00 / 0)

Seems pretty close right now.  Maybe one of the last to flip, but could it?

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 18:59:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think 391 includes WV n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: themostprogressivecorporatelawyerofalltime @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:02:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

AZ and AK (0.00 / 0)

Obama would have had a great shot in both these states. I will never understand the home-state advantage. So you were going to vote for Obama, but would rather vote for your laughing-stock governor? Say it ain't so Joe...

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

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by: LandStander @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:13:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In AZ (0.00 / 0)

It's not a Homestate effect, its a snowbird effect. Obama was actually closing the gap steadily midway through the summer, and probably getting pretty close to a tie. But the snowbirds that live in the reddest parts of the Northern West (as opposed to the NorthWest, which is bluer) during the hot months start relocating down to AZ in late August, and they move the numbers. Meanwhile, younger voters are going elsewhere for jobs/school.  

My response to Republicans who told me to leave the US if I didn't like the 2004 Election results:
"To hell with that, we're taking this place back!"

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by: Beomoose @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:51:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

wishful thinking (0.00 / 0)

obama 338-200 at best. my prediction obama 286-252.  

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by: TA13 @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 23:49:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'd like to see an Arkansas poll (0.00 / 0)

The most recent poll is 9/22.  The white Southern Democrats on the east coast are coming home to Obama -- could this happen in Arkansas?

No, it won't decide the election, but in the blowout scenario I wouldn't write if off yet.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:22:58 PM CDT

Better than Clinton (0.00 / 0)

It's not the same as Bill Clinton's margins; it's much, much better. In 1996 the Dole vote pretty clearly would either have stayed home or voted mostly for Dole; thus it helped his ec margin substantially. Likewise I'm pretty sure Clinton would not have won 370 evs in 1992; he won a number of states by very small margins, notably GA, OH, and NJ back when it was a swing state.

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by: nbeaudrot @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 19:30:49 PM CDT

Perot (4.00 / 1)

Clinton would not have won Elector College blow-outs without Ross Perot sucking up a lot of conservative votes.  Clinton never hit 50% of the popular vote.

This is a two person race, and I dont consider a state an Obama lock unless he is polling above 50%.  A 47-45 spread does not fill me with confidence.  Same with national polling.  At this point, I am less concerned with how Obama is doing vs McCain, than how he is doing getting and staying above 50%.

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by: winston smith @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 20:34:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If advertising (0.00 / 0)

means anything, Indiana is definitely in play.  Obama is killing McCain in TV advertising and mailings, at least in central Indiana.  I have recieved 5 or 6 mailers in two weeks and have seen or heard advertising by Obama almost daily.  I can't remember when I last saw a McCain add on TV (outside of Fox News).  

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by: zelt @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 21:34:57 PM CDT

you watch fox news? (0.00 / 0)

n/t

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by: winston smith @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 22:29:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Only (4.00 / 2)

to see what kind of lies they are telling.  Better to be prepared to defend the truth when needed.  Unfortunately, I can only stomach about 10 seconds every two hours.  Maybe that should be fortunately.

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by: zelt @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 22:43:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

electoral votes (0.00 / 0)

people predicting close to 400 electoral votes for obama are simply too stoked to think rationally.

just to get 380 obama would have to win oh, va, nc, fl, nv, mo, in, and wv.

i live and volunteer in wv. as much as i hate to admit it, obama will not take wv. and it's unlikely he takes IN, so that drops him to 364.

of the remaining six states: oh, va, nc, fl, nv, and mo, obama will be fortunate to take 3 at the most, and i'll give him the highest for the sake of argument (oh, fl, and nc).

that leaves obama standing at 335, a much more realistic figure. get real folks.

 

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by: TA13 @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 00:14:01 AM CDT

Virginia is pretty much in the bag (0.00 / 0)

Assuming there's no macaca moment for the Obama campaign, Obama wins Virginia. The median poll lead is something like 7 or 9 points now.

Florida is trending Obama, too. There are a LOT of new registered voters down there and the polls are showing Florida getting bluer and bluer.

Obama will take more than 3 of your "fortunate to take 3 at most" list if current polls are even somewhat accurate. Nevada, Ohio, and NC would be in the Obama column if the vote were today. Ohio is going to come down to the wire, granted, and so is Missouri, I suspect.

Right now the others on your list are in the Obama column. It's really not a reach for them all to go his way on election day.

Karl in Drexel Hill, PA

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by: KB @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 08:22:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Voting (0.00 / 0)

Do we know how many of these swing states have already started voting?

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by: Kane @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 06:08:51 AM CDT