Dark Blue (252): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (60): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/26-11/01 States not shown are further either direction
Methodology The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the entirety of their interviews conducted within the last 8 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
In the event that no polls were taken within the past week, the most recent polls are used. "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 8 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
Analysis Obama cruises to 252 electoral votes, and, given the volume of early voting in Nevada, really to 257 electoral votes. From that point, all he needs to do is avoid being swept in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. He currently holds leads in all three, ranging from a high of 5.5% 5.8% in Pennsylvania to a low of 0.4% in North Carolina. Victory certainly seems to be almost assured.
My best bet is that Obama's final electoral total will be either 338 or 353, depending on whether he wins North Carolina or not. I think that Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota will just barely slip toward McCain, with Arizona, Georgia and Montana going for McCain by somewhat wider margins. However, the next two days of polling could convince me otherwise, and I won't be making any final predictions until early morning, November 4th.
