Open Left

Interesting

I think this one is going to be no longer than 6 years (maybe only 4).

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 08:33:29 AM CDT

At the rate these bozos are going, it won't be more than two years.

In that regard, Obama is looking to repeat the Clinton failures.

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by: Michael Kwiatkowski @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 09:19:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Got to agree

I was looking at something in the 8 to 12 year range when this Administration started but now something between 2 and 6 years seems most likely.  No more bi-partisanship and no compromises till the end.  Please.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 10:35:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Though it should be said that

for much of the post-Civil War period, there was effective one-party Republican rule (especially during reconstruction), and the important political dynamics had more to do with various patronage-seeking factions within the Republican party than it had to do with interparty politics.  

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by: Valatan @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 10:43:17 AM CDT

You Can See A Visual Representation Of This In My Recent Diary

"Two-Party Fail", from last Sunday.  It starts off with a chart of the six party systems we've had in US history.  Trifectas have been the rule throughout this period, up until the last party system, which alone has been dominated by divided government.

First Party System: Dem-Reps: 12 / Feds: 2 / Split: 1
Second Party System: Dem-Reps: 9 / Whigs: 1 / Split: 7
Third Party System: Dems: 1 / Reps: 9 / Split: 8
Fourth Party System: Dems 3 / Reps: 12 / Split: 3
Fifth Party System: Dems: 13 / Reps: 1 / Split: 4
Sixth Party System: Dems: 3 / Reps 2.25 / Split: 13.75

The most common pattern just after a realigning election--such as 2008, is for the new dominant party to win 7 straight trifectas, which has happened three times--1860-1872, 1896-1908, and 1932-1944.

The most ominous pattern is what happened in the First Party System, which started off with the Federalists in charge, then losing all three branches in the 1800 election, and never winning control of anything ever again.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 11:31:10 AM CDT

The charge

Mostly has worked but Nixon in 1968 not only failed to win a trifecta he failed despite a landslide in 1972.  I was all psyched up for a period of Democratic dominance starting in 2008 and running 36 years or so but things are slipping fast.  I suspect we will have a period of weak dominance rather than an 1800, 1860, or 1932 situation.

Harry and Louise had a huge impact on the pols but limited impact on real people.  The other stuff did us in.  The polls seem to be moving worse than the pols. I see car dealers moaning about cash for clunkers on the front page of the local paper.  Fools.  The money may be a little slow but they will get it.  Otherwise the major hit on dealers would be even worse (GM slashing 40% of its dealers).

The southern Dems and their balanced budget crap saved the Republicans in 1938.  The Blue Dogs and conservadems seem intent on saving them again in 2010.  Ignore them and act bold.  The only lessons worth learning from Ronald Reagam were act bold and don't compromise to the last minute.  Well, if Obama thinks Reagan should be a model, those should be the lessons.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 12:56:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

+1

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

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by: lord_mike @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 14:03:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]