Hawaii, of course, is a state. And there's 600,000 Pacific Islanders on the mainland, along with 3.4 million Puerto Ricans, 1.2 million Cubans, 0.8 million Dominicans, and 1.7 million from the West Indies. So there's actually a large number of Pacific Islanders and Caribbean Americans who, if citizens, can vote in the United States federal elections and do have representation.
But Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands are all United States Territories, and they do not have voting representatives in Washington DC, nor can they participate in the electoral college. (Additional US Territories have populations ranging from none to a handful.)
I have decided to discontinue my personal pledged delegate count, and just go with the pledged delegate count from the Green Papers from now on, since I agree with their count 100%. For superdelegates, I will still be using Democratic Convention Watch, which is the best source out there. Although it was not a factor in choosing these two sources, it is kind of cool that two DIY sources are the best places to go for accurate delegate counts on the 2008 nomination campaign. Who needs big media, anyway? Here are the latest totals:
The Green Papers pledged delegates, plus my superdelegate detailed count, give overall totals of Obama 1,682--1,524 Clinton. With a magic number of 2,022.5 (the two vacancies reduce the magic number by 1), Obama needs only 41.5%, or 340.5, of the remaining 821 uncommitted delegates to win the nomination.
The delegate projection for the remaining primary and caucus states is as follows, based on current polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.6%
48.6%
158
73
85
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
44.3%
51.3%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
266
300
Add this in to the above numbers, and it comes to a grand total of Obama 1,948--1,824 Clinton, with only the 255 remaining superdelegates to go. Obama would need 74.5, or just 29.3%, of the remaining superdelegates to reach the 2,022.5 magic number. At that point, he would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan. In order to have any chance, Clinton is going to need to significantly outperform current polls in remaining states, come up with a convincing new argument for superdelegates, and somehow finagle a good deal for Michigan and Florida. And even if she pulls all of that off, each aspect of which is unlikely, Obama will still be favored because he will have more than zero delegates in Michigan. In other words, it would be a shocker if Obama wasn't the nominee, and if the nomination campaign wasn't functionally over by the end of June.
